Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting a sharp drop in labor-force participation rather than broad hiring strength. This low-hire, low-fire equilibrium has kept the rate near multi-year lows but leaves it vulnerable to further softening if consumer spending moderates amid sticky inflation and elevated policy rates. CBO projections place the 2026 average at 4.6 percent, while private forecasts anticipate limited upside to around 4.5 percent barring a sharper downturn. Key swing factors include the September 4 jobs report, September FOMC decision, and any tariff or immigration-policy shifts that could alter labor supply. Trader positioning on the peak 2026 rate therefore hinges on whether incoming data confirm stabilization near current levels or signal acceleration toward those higher consensus estimates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$481,360 Vol.
2026/01/10
5.0%
10%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
5%
10.0%
3%
$481,360 Vol.
5.0%
$123,066 Vol.
10%
5.5%
$200,573 Vol.
8%
6.0%
$75,518 Vol.
7%
7.0%
$31,207 Vol.
5%
10.0%
$50,996 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting a sharp drop in labor-force participation rather than broad hiring strength. This low-hire, low-fire equilibrium has kept the rate near multi-year lows but leaves it vulnerable to further softening if consumer spending moderates amid sticky inflation and elevated policy rates. CBO projections place the 2026 average at 4.6 percent, while private forecasts anticipate limited upside to around 4.5 percent barring a sharper downturn. Key swing factors include the September 4 jobs report, September FOMC decision, and any tariff or immigration-policy shifts that could alter labor supply. Trader positioning on the peak 2026 rate therefore hinges on whether incoming data confirm stabilization near current levels or signal acceleration toward those higher consensus estimates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$481,360終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting a sharp drop in labor-force participation rather than broad hiring strength. This low-hire, low-fire equilibrium has kept the rate near multi-year lows but leaves it vulnerable to further softening if consumer spending moderates amid sticky inflation and elevated policy rates. CBO projections place the 2026 average at 4.6 percent, while private forecasts anticipate limited upside to around 4.5 percent barring a sharper downturn. Key swing factors include the September 4 jobs report, September FOMC decision, and any tariff or immigration-policy shifts that could alter labor supply. Trader positioning on the peak 2026 rate therefore hinges on whether incoming data confirm stabilization near current levels or signal acceleration toward those higher consensus estimates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$481,360終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting a sharp drop in labor-force participation rather than broad hiring strength. This low-hire, low-fire equilibrium has kept the rate near multi-year lows but leaves it vulnerable to further softening if consumer spending moderates amid sticky inflation and elevated policy rates. CBO projections place the 2026 average at 4.6 percent, while private forecasts anticipate limited upside to around 4.5 percent barring a sharper downturn. Key swing factors include the September 4 jobs report, September FOMC decision, and any tariff or immigration-policy shifts that could alter labor supply. Trader positioning on the peak 2026 rate therefore hinges on whether incoming data confirm stabilization near current levels or signal acceleration toward those higher consensus estimates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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