Recent US data show unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI of 3.4%, keeping the labor market firmly below the 5% threshold while inflation hovers near the 3.5% cutoff. This combination has anchored trader consensus around the soft-landing and overheating scenarios at 53.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Persistent energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions have slowed the disinflation path, supporting the higher weighting on overheating, while core CPI easing to 2.5% and steady jobless claims reinforce expectations that unemployment will remain contained. With the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes on further tightening, markets price in limited policy easing through year-end, leaving room for inflation to reaccelerate or moderate depending on tariff and energy developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 5.1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,798 Vol.
$69,798 Vol.
2027/01/31
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 5.1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,798 Vol.
$69,798 Vol.
2027/01/31
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,683 Vol.
60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,156 Vol.
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,511 Vol.
5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,448 Vol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US data show unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI of 3.4%, keeping the labor market firmly below the 5% threshold while inflation hovers near the 3.5% cutoff. This combination has anchored trader consensus around the soft-landing and overheating scenarios at 53.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Persistent energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions have slowed the disinflation path, supporting the higher weighting on overheating, while core CPI easing to 2.5% and steady jobless claims reinforce expectations that unemployment will remain contained. With the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes on further tightening, markets price in limited policy easing through year-end, leaving room for inflation to reaccelerate or moderate depending on tariff and energy developments.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$69,798終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US data show unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI of 3.4%, keeping the labor market firmly below the 5% threshold while inflation hovers near the 3.5% cutoff. This combination has anchored trader consensus around the soft-landing and overheating scenarios at 53.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Persistent energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions have slowed the disinflation path, supporting the higher weighting on overheating, while core CPI easing to 2.5% and steady jobless claims reinforce expectations that unemployment will remain contained. With the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes on further tightening, markets price in limited policy easing through year-end, leaving room for inflation to reaccelerate or moderate depending on tariff and energy developments.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
音量
$69,798終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US data show unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI of 3.4%, keeping the labor market firmly below the 5% threshold while inflation hovers near the 3.5% cutoff. This combination has anchored trader consensus around the soft-landing and overheating scenarios at 53.5% and 39.5% implied probability. Persistent energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions have slowed the disinflation path, supporting the higher weighting on overheating, while core CPI easing to 2.5% and steady jobless claims reinforce expectations that unemployment will remain contained. With the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes on further tightening, markets price in limited policy easing through year-end, leaving room for inflation to reaccelerate or moderate depending on tariff and energy developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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