Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability traders assign to a soft landing by year-end, with unemployment remaining below 5% amid contained price pressures. Cooling energy and shelter components have supported the downward inflation trend, while resilient job growth and labor force participation keep slack risks negligible at just 0.3%. The 34.5% odds on overheating reflect persistent core inflation around 2.5% and potential reacceleration from fiscal stimulus or supply constraints, even as the Federal Reserve holds the funds rate near 3.5-3.75% with mixed signals on further easing. Market-implied odds price in a continued gradual disinflation path consistent with current momentum, though any reversal in labor demand or commodity shocks could shift probabilities toward higher inflation without breaching the 5% unemployment threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 1.7%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,178 Vol.
$70,178 Vol.
2027/01/30
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 1.7%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,178 Vol.
$70,178 Vol.
2027/01/30
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,839 Vol.
65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,208 Vol.
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,622 Vol.
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,508 Vol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability traders assign to a soft landing by year-end, with unemployment remaining below 5% amid contained price pressures. Cooling energy and shelter components have supported the downward inflation trend, while resilient job growth and labor force participation keep slack risks negligible at just 0.3%. The 34.5% odds on overheating reflect persistent core inflation around 2.5% and potential reacceleration from fiscal stimulus or supply constraints, even as the Federal Reserve holds the funds rate near 3.5-3.75% with mixed signals on further easing. Market-implied odds price in a continued gradual disinflation path consistent with current momentum, though any reversal in labor demand or commodity shocks could shift probabilities toward higher inflation without breaching the 5% unemployment threshold.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$70,178終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability traders assign to a soft landing by year-end, with unemployment remaining below 5% amid contained price pressures. Cooling energy and shelter components have supported the downward inflation trend, while resilient job growth and labor force participation keep slack risks negligible at just 0.3%. The 34.5% odds on overheating reflect persistent core inflation around 2.5% and potential reacceleration from fiscal stimulus or supply constraints, even as the Federal Reserve holds the funds rate near 3.5-3.75% with mixed signals on further easing. Market-implied odds price in a continued gradual disinflation path consistent with current momentum, though any reversal in labor demand or commodity shocks could shift probabilities toward higher inflation without breaching the 5% unemployment threshold.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
音量
$70,178終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability traders assign to a soft landing by year-end, with unemployment remaining below 5% amid contained price pressures. Cooling energy and shelter components have supported the downward inflation trend, while resilient job growth and labor force participation keep slack risks negligible at just 0.3%. The 34.5% odds on overheating reflect persistent core inflation around 2.5% and potential reacceleration from fiscal stimulus or supply constraints, even as the Federal Reserve holds the funds rate near 3.5-3.75% with mixed signals on further easing. Market-implied odds price in a continued gradual disinflation path consistent with current momentum, though any reversal in labor demand or commodity shocks could shift probabilities toward higher inflation without breaching the 5% unemployment threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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