Polymarket traders show a razor-thin divide on May nonfarm payrolls, pricing 100k–150k at 39% implied probability versus 0–50k at 34.5%, capturing labor market fragility amid mixed signals. April's BLS report revealed 115,000 jobs added—beating economist consensus of 65,000 but decelerating from March's revised 185,000—while average monthly gains hold at 76,000 year-to-date, up from 2025's anemic 10,000. Rising initial jobless claims to 211,000 for the week ending May 9 and ISM manufacturing employment contracting to 46.4 underscore downside risks, contrasting April ADP's 109,000 private gains. Pivotal ahead: ADP May data and weekly claims, ahead of the June 6 release, where sub-100k prints could solidify weak-job consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 17%
0 – 50k 16%
新規
新規
2026/06/05
<0
13%
0 – 50k
34%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
39%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
22%
150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 17%
0 – 50k 16%
新規
新規
2026/06/05
<0
$138 Vol.
13%
0 – 50k
$70 Vol.
34%
50k – 100k
$40 Vol.
17%
100k – 150k
$63 Vol.
39%
150k – 200k
$38 Vol.
30%
200k+
$38 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders show a razor-thin divide on May nonfarm payrolls, pricing 100k–150k at 39% implied probability versus 0–50k at 34.5%, capturing labor market fragility amid mixed signals. April's BLS report revealed 115,000 jobs added—beating economist consensus of 65,000 but decelerating from March's revised 185,000—while average monthly gains hold at 76,000 year-to-date, up from 2025's anemic 10,000. Rising initial jobless claims to 211,000 for the week ending May 9 and ISM manufacturing employment contracting to 46.4 underscore downside risks, contrasting April ADP's 109,000 private gains. Pivotal ahead: ADP May data and weekly claims, ahead of the June 6 release, where sub-100k prints could solidify weak-job consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
マーケット開始日： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
音量
$386終了日
2026/06/05マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders show a razor-thin divide on May nonfarm payrolls, pricing 100k–150k at 39% implied probability versus 0–50k at 34.5%, capturing labor market fragility amid mixed signals. April's BLS report revealed 115,000 jobs added—beating economist consensus of 65,000 but decelerating from March's revised 185,000—while average monthly gains hold at 76,000 year-to-date, up from 2025's anemic 10,000. Rising initial jobless claims to 211,000 for the week ending May 9 and ISM manufacturing employment contracting to 46.4 underscore downside risks, contrasting April ADP's 109,000 private gains. Pivotal ahead: ADP May data and weekly claims, ahead of the June 6 release, where sub-100k prints could solidify weak-job consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
音量
$386終了日
2026/06/05マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show a razor-thin divide on May nonfarm payrolls, pricing 100k–150k at 39% implied probability versus 0–50k at 34.5%, capturing labor market fragility amid mixed signals. April's BLS report revealed 115,000 jobs added—beating economist consensus of 65,000 but decelerating from March's revised 185,000—while average monthly gains hold at 76,000 year-to-date, up from 2025's anemic 10,000. Rising initial jobless claims to 211,000 for the week ending May 9 and ISM manufacturing employment contracting to 46.4 underscore downside risks, contrasting April ADP's 109,000 private gains. Pivotal ahead: ADP May data and weekly claims, ahead of the June 6 release, where sub-100k prints could solidify weak-job consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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