Strong U.S. economic data and official forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.2% annualized real GDP growth for Q2 2026, following 2.5% in Q1, while the FOMC's September 2026 projections placed median Q4/Q4 growth at 2.3%. AI-driven business investment in data centers and technology, alongside resilient consumer spending and equity wealth effects, have sustained expansion above potential. Forecasters from the OECD, UCLA Anderson, and others project 2.1-2.3% growth for the year. Tail risks include a sharp AI valuation correction, Middle East escalation pushing oil prices higher, or unexpected inflation spikes prompting aggressive monetary tightening that could tip the economy into contraction.