Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.8% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 release showing Q1 2026 real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% and fueled by resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. This data, alongside Atlanta Fed's Q2 projection of 3.5% growth, aligns with professional forecasters' full-year estimates of 1.8%–2.5% expansion amid stable unemployment near 4.5% and inflation trending toward the Fed's 2% target. Prediction market odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets pricing out contraction risks, with key catalysts including upcoming Q2 GDP (late July), May CPI, and June FOMC policy signals on rate cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
2027/01/29
はい
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
2027/01/29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.8% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 release showing Q1 2026 real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% and fueled by resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. This data, alongside Atlanta Fed's Q2 projection of 3.5% growth, aligns with professional forecasters' full-year estimates of 1.8%–2.5% expansion amid stable unemployment near 4.5% and inflation trending toward the Fed's 2% target. Prediction market odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets pricing out contraction risks, with key catalysts including upcoming Q2 GDP (late July), May CPI, and June FOMC policy signals on rate cuts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$26,508終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.8% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 release showing Q1 2026 real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% and fueled by resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. This data, alongside Atlanta Fed's Q2 projection of 3.5% growth, aligns with professional forecasters' full-year estimates of 1.8%–2.5% expansion amid stable unemployment near 4.5% and inflation trending toward the Fed's 2% target. Prediction market odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets pricing out contraction risks, with key catalysts including upcoming Q2 GDP (late July), May CPI, and June FOMC policy signals on rate cuts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$26,508終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.8% implied probability to positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 release showing Q1 2026 real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% and fueled by resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains. This data, alongside Atlanta Fed's Q2 projection of 3.5% growth, aligns with professional forecasters' full-year estimates of 1.8%–2.5% expansion amid stable unemployment near 4.5% and inflation trending toward the Fed's 2% target. Prediction market odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets pricing out contraction risks, with key catalysts including upcoming Q2 GDP (late July), May CPI, and June FOMC policy signals on rate cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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