Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points hike in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in its statement and updated projections forecasting 2.6% headline inflation for 2026, aligning with economist surveys anticipating June and September hikes. Weak Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% tempers larger moves, keeping no-change odds at 18.8%, with the June 11-12 decision as the key catalyst ahead of May inflation data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 82%
No change 18.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,389 Vol.
$244,389 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
19%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
82%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 82%
No change 18.8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,389 Vol.
$244,389 Vol.
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$47,279 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,114 Vol.
<1%
No change
$49,524 Vol.
19%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$59,422 Vol.
82%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$47,050 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points hike in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in its statement and updated projections forecasting 2.6% headline inflation for 2026, aligning with economist surveys anticipating June and September hikes. Weak Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% tempers larger moves, keeping no-change odds at 18.8%, with the June 11-12 decision as the key catalyst ahead of May inflation data.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$244,389終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points hike in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in its statement and updated projections forecasting 2.6% headline inflation for 2026, aligning with economist surveys anticipating June and September hikes. Weak Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% tempers larger moves, keeping no-change odds at 18.8%, with the June 11-12 decision as the key catalyst ahead of May inflation data.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$244,389終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points hike in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in its statement and updated projections forecasting 2.6% headline inflation for 2026, aligning with economist surveys anticipating June and September hikes. Weak Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% tempers larger moves, keeping no-change odds at 18.8%, with the June 11-12 decision as the key catalyst ahead of May inflation data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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