The Bank of Russia’s sustained monetary easing cycle, marked by eight consecutive key-rate cuts through the April 24 reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5 percent, drives the 74 percent market-implied probability of another decrease at the July 24 meeting. Annual inflation stood at 5.7 percent in late April, with underlying price growth holding in the 4–5 percent annualized range after one-off VAT and tariff effects, aligning with the central bank’s baseline forecast of 4.5–5.5 percent for full-year 2026. Cooling domestic demand and the cumulative impact of prior tightening have reinforced the disinflation trajectory, outweighing residual pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external conditions. The May summary of key-rate discussions underscored that further easing hinges on sustained progress toward the 4 percent target, positioning the July decision as a likely extension of the current path absent adverse data surprises ahead of the June 19 meeting.