Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed conflict involving Iran that has pushed oil prices back toward $100 per barrel and disrupted energy supplies, have elevated upside risks to Eurozone inflation. Following the ECB’s July 23 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.25%, President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the full effects of higher energy costs have not yet materialized and that further tightening may be required to anchor inflation at the 2% medium-term target. June inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.8% while core measures remained elevated, and staff projections were revised higher for 2026 on the back of energy pass-through effects. These factors have aligned trader pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 9–10 meeting, with limited odds assigned to larger moves or cuts absent a sharp reversal in commodity trends or growth indicators before then.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 87%
現状維持 13%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.7%
25bpsの利下げ <1%
$177,014 Vol.
$177,014 Vol.
2026/09/10
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
<1%
25bpsの利下げ
1%
現状維持
13%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
87%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
2%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 87%
現状維持 13%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.7%
25bpsの利下げ <1%
$177,014 Vol.
$177,014 Vol.
2026/09/10
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$13,929 Vol.
<1%
25bpsの利下げ
$23,793 Vol.
1%
現状維持
$53,124 Vol.
13%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$59,533 Vol.
87%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$26,634 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed conflict involving Iran that has pushed oil prices back toward $100 per barrel and disrupted energy supplies, have elevated upside risks to Eurozone inflation. Following the ECB’s July 23 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.25%, President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the full effects of higher energy costs have not yet materialized and that further tightening may be required to anchor inflation at the 2% medium-term target. June inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.8% while core measures remained elevated, and staff projections were revised higher for 2026 on the back of energy pass-through effects. These factors have aligned trader pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 9–10 meeting, with limited odds assigned to larger moves or cuts absent a sharp reversal in commodity trends or growth indicators before then.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$177,014終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed conflict involving Iran that has pushed oil prices back toward $100 per barrel and disrupted energy supplies, have elevated upside risks to Eurozone inflation. Following the ECB’s July 23 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.25%, President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the full effects of higher energy costs have not yet materialized and that further tightening may be required to anchor inflation at the 2% medium-term target. June inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.8% while core measures remained elevated, and staff projections were revised higher for 2026 on the back of energy pass-through effects. These factors have aligned trader pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 9–10 meeting, with limited odds assigned to larger moves or cuts absent a sharp reversal in commodity trends or growth indicators before then.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$177,014終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed conflict involving Iran that has pushed oil prices back toward $100 per barrel and disrupted energy supplies, have elevated upside risks to Eurozone inflation. Following the ECB’s July 23 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.25%, President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the full effects of higher energy costs have not yet materialized and that further tightening may be required to anchor inflation at the 2% medium-term target. June inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.8% while core measures remained elevated, and staff projections were revised higher for 2026 on the back of energy pass-through effects. These factors have aligned trader pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 9–10 meeting, with limited odds assigned to larger moves or cuts absent a sharp reversal in commodity trends or growth indicators before then.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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