Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, including a 6-3 split to hold rates at 0.75%, have elevated market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 decision. Rising core inflation near 2.5%, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness around 157 against the dollar, support the normalization path, as reflected in Reuters economist surveys showing 65% expecting the move by end-June. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this outcome at 79.8%, with no-change odds at 19.5% incorporating downside growth risks to 0.5%. Upcoming May inflation data and any further yen intervention could refine these probabilities ahead of the FOMC-aligned resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 79.8%
変更なし 20%
50bps以上の利上げ 1.2%
金利引き下げ <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
2026/06/16
金利引き下げ
1%
変更なし
20%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
80%
50bps以上の利上げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 79.8%
変更なし 20%
50bps以上の利上げ 1.2%
金利引き下げ <1%
$115,192 Vol.
$115,192 Vol.
2026/06/16
金利引き下げ
$34,145 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$29,089 Vol.
20%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$27,591 Vol.
80%
50bps以上の利上げ
$24,367 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, including a 6-3 split to hold rates at 0.75%, have elevated market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 decision. Rising core inflation near 2.5%, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness around 157 against the dollar, support the normalization path, as reflected in Reuters economist surveys showing 65% expecting the move by end-June. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this outcome at 79.8%, with no-change odds at 19.5% incorporating downside growth risks to 0.5%. Upcoming May inflation data and any further yen intervention could refine these probabilities ahead of the FOMC-aligned resolution window.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$115,192終了日
2026/06/16マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, including a 6-3 split to hold rates at 0.75%, have elevated market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 decision. Rising core inflation near 2.5%, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness around 157 against the dollar, support the normalization path, as reflected in Reuters economist surveys showing 65% expecting the move by end-June. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this outcome at 79.8%, with no-change odds at 19.5% incorporating downside growth risks to 0.5%. Upcoming May inflation data and any further yen intervention could refine these probabilities ahead of the FOMC-aligned resolution window.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$115,192終了日
2026/06/16マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting, including a 6-3 split to hold rates at 0.75%, have elevated market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 decision. Rising core inflation near 2.5%, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness around 157 against the dollar, support the normalization path, as reflected in Reuters economist surveys showing 65% expecting the move by end-June. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this outcome at 79.8%, with no-change odds at 19.5% incorporating downside growth risks to 0.5%. Upcoming May inflation data and any further yen intervention could refine these probabilities ahead of the FOMC-aligned resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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