Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.9% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with economist forecasts averaging around 0.4% from sources like BNP Paribas and Trading Economics, reflecting resilient private consumption amid broader deceleration risks flagged in the Bank of Japan's April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity. Recent weakness in March industrial production—a surprise -0.5% month-on-month drop driven by higher oil prices from geopolitical tensions—has capped upside expectations, boosting the nearby 0.0–0.2% outcome to 13.7%, while contraction odds remain low at under 12% due to steady retail sales. Preliminary Cabinet Office data due mid-May could catalyze shifts as final components firm up.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.0～0.2％ 26.0%
0.6〜0.8% 12.1%
0.9～1.1％ 10.1%
-0.3～-0.1％ 4.4%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
2%
-0.3～-0.1％
4%
0.0～0.2％
15%
0.3〜0.5％
39%
0.6〜0.8%
12%
0.9～1.1％
10%
1.2％以上
3%
0.0～0.2％ 26.0%
0.6〜0.8% 12.1%
0.9～1.1％ 10.1%
-0.3～-0.1％ 4.4%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
$974 Vol.
2%
-0.3～-0.1％
$544 Vol.
4%
0.0～0.2％
$534 Vol.
15%
0.3〜0.5％
$593 Vol.
39%
0.6〜0.8%
$374 Vol.
12%
0.9～1.1％
$607 Vol.
10%
1.2％以上
$2,542 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.9% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with economist forecasts averaging around 0.4% from sources like BNP Paribas and Trading Economics, reflecting resilient private consumption amid broader deceleration risks flagged in the Bank of Japan's April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity. Recent weakness in March industrial production—a surprise -0.5% month-on-month drop driven by higher oil prices from geopolitical tensions—has capped upside expectations, boosting the nearby 0.0–0.2% outcome to 13.7%, while contraction odds remain low at under 12% due to steady retail sales. Preliminary Cabinet Office data due mid-May could catalyze shifts as final components firm up.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$6,168終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.9% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with economist forecasts averaging around 0.4% from sources like BNP Paribas and Trading Economics, reflecting resilient private consumption amid broader deceleration risks flagged in the Bank of Japan's April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity. Recent weakness in March industrial production—a surprise -0.5% month-on-month drop driven by higher oil prices from geopolitical tensions—has capped upside expectations, boosting the nearby 0.0–0.2% outcome to 13.7%, while contraction odds remain low at under 12% due to steady retail sales. Preliminary Cabinet Office data due mid-May could catalyze shifts as final components firm up.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$6,168終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.9% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with economist forecasts averaging around 0.4% from sources like BNP Paribas and Trading Economics, reflecting resilient private consumption amid broader deceleration risks flagged in the Bank of Japan's April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity. Recent weakness in March industrial production—a surprise -0.5% month-on-month drop driven by higher oil prices from geopolitical tensions—has capped upside expectations, boosting the nearby 0.0–0.2% outcome to 13.7%, while contraction odds remain low at under 12% due to steady retail sales. Preliminary Cabinet Office data due mid-May could catalyze shifts as final components firm up.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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