Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日>2.5％ 44%
0.5%未満 31.1%
2.0〜2.5％ 19%
1.5〜2.0％ 16.9%
$28,075 Vol.
$28,075 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
31%
0.5～1.0％
12%
1.0〜1.5％
12%
1.5〜2.0％
17%
2.0〜2.5％
24%
>2.5％
44%
>2.5％ 44%
0.5%未満 31.1%
2.0〜2.5％ 19%
1.5〜2.0％ 16.9%
$28,075 Vol.
$28,075 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$3,879 Vol.
31%
0.5～1.0％
$15,278 Vol.
12%
1.0〜1.5％
$1,535 Vol.
12%
1.5〜2.0％
$1,504 Vol.
17%
2.0〜2.5％
$1,819 Vol.
24%
>2.5％
$4,061 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$28,075終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,075終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed GDPNow's upgrade to 4.0% for Q2 2026 real GDP growth as of May 14—fueled by stronger-than-expected economic data—has propelled the market-implied probability of full-year growth exceeding 2.5% to 43%, the trader consensus frontrunner on Polymarket. This follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% Q1 growth, a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% but below 2.3% expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending, business investment, and exports. The 26% odds for 2.0–2.5% align with consensus forecasts like Deloitte's 2.2%, while elevated 23% recession risk (<0.5%) reflects labor market softening concerns despite nowcast strength. Upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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