Recent July 2026 FOMC action—holding the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—has anchored trader views amid elevated inflation and oil-price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. Softer June CPI prints provided modest relief, yet the Committee’s tightening bias and lack of updated projections keep the path for September and October meetings uncertain. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with “Other” sequences (likely incorporating at least one hike) at 62.5% and pure Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%, underscoring sensitivity to upcoming July–August inflation releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision. Geopolitical developments and labor-market resilience remain key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$657,789 Vol.
$657,789 Vol.
2026/10/28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$220,903 Vol.
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,978 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,752 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,264 Vol.
1%
Other
$287,403 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July 2026 FOMC action—holding the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—has anchored trader views amid elevated inflation and oil-price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. Softer June CPI prints provided modest relief, yet the Committee’s tightening bias and lack of updated projections keep the path for September and October meetings uncertain. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with “Other” sequences (likely incorporating at least one hike) at 62.5% and pure Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%, underscoring sensitivity to upcoming July–August inflation releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision. Geopolitical developments and labor-market resilience remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
音量
$657,789終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July 2026 FOMC action—holding the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—has anchored trader views amid elevated inflation and oil-price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. Softer June CPI prints provided modest relief, yet the Committee’s tightening bias and lack of updated projections keep the path for September and October meetings uncertain. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with “Other” sequences (likely incorporating at least one hike) at 62.5% and pure Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%, underscoring sensitivity to upcoming July–August inflation releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision. Geopolitical developments and labor-market resilience remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$657,789終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 FOMC action—holding the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike—has anchored trader views amid elevated inflation and oil-price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. Softer June CPI prints provided modest relief, yet the Committee’s tightening bias and lack of updated projections keep the path for September and October meetings uncertain. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with “Other” sequences (likely incorporating at least one hike) at 62.5% and pure Pause–Pause–Pause at 29.5%, underscoring sensitivity to upcoming July–August inflation releases and the September 15–16 FOMC decision. Geopolitical developments and labor-market resilience remain key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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