Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy actions from July through October position “Other” as the leading outcome at 51.5%, ahead of several rate-path sequences clustered near 35–36%. This dispersion reflects trader uncertainty over the exact timing and number of cuts amid mixed inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI prints and employment data have kept expectations for a steady easing path in check, while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures continue to embed a cautious monetary-policy stance. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases through the summer remain the primary catalysts that could consolidate probabilities around one of the listed sequences or shift further weight toward “Other.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Cut–Pause–Pause 70%
Cut–Pause–Cut 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 70%
Pause–Cut–Pause 70%
新規
新規
2026/10/28
Cut–Pause–Pause
70%
Cut–Pause–Cut
70%
Cut–Cut–Pause
36%
Cut–Cut–Cut
36%
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
70%
Pause–Cut–Pause
70%
Pause–Cut–Cut
70%
Other
52%
Cut–Pause–Pause 70%
Cut–Pause–Cut 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 70%
Pause–Cut–Pause 70%
新規
新規
2026/10/28
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
70%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
70%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
36%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
36%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
70%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
70%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
70%
Other
$0 Vol.
52%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy actions from July through October position “Other” as the leading outcome at 51.5%, ahead of several rate-path sequences clustered near 35–36%. This dispersion reflects trader uncertainty over the exact timing and number of cuts amid mixed inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI prints and employment data have kept expectations for a steady easing path in check, while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures continue to embed a cautious monetary-policy stance. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases through the summer remain the primary catalysts that could consolidate probabilities around one of the listed sequences or shift further weight toward “Other.”
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy actions from July through October position “Other” as the leading outcome at 51.5%, ahead of several rate-path sequences clustered near 35–36%. This dispersion reflects trader uncertainty over the exact timing and number of cuts amid mixed inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI prints and employment data have kept expectations for a steady easing path in check, while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures continue to embed a cautious monetary-policy stance. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases through the summer remain the primary catalysts that could consolidate probabilities around one of the listed sequences or shift further weight toward “Other.”
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy actions from July through October position “Other” as the leading outcome at 51.5%, ahead of several rate-path sequences clustered near 35–36%. This dispersion reflects trader uncertainty over the exact timing and number of cuts amid mixed inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI prints and employment data have kept expectations for a steady easing path in check, while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures continue to embed a cautious monetary-policy stance. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases through the summer remain the primary catalysts that could consolidate probabilities around one of the listed sequences or shift further weight toward “Other.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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