Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts, recently revised to 5.1% for Q3 2026, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpin the 52.5% market-implied probability for annualized growth at or above 3.0%. August labor data showed nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation trends remain contained despite headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and upward revisions to its 2026 growth median of 2.3% reflect a still-solid expansion, though net exports and potential moderation in capex pose downside risks. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of the late-October advance estimate, with lower brackets (such as 2.0–2.5% at 19.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日≥3.0% 53%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,323 Vol.
$28,323 Vol.
2026/10/29
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
20%
2.5–3.0%
16%
≥3.0%
53%
≥3.0% 53%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,323 Vol.
$28,323 Vol.
2026/10/29
<0.5%
$911 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,950 Vol.
20%
2.5–3.0%
$3,461 Vol.
16%
≥3.0%
$20,063 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts, recently revised to 5.1% for Q3 2026, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpin the 52.5% market-implied probability for annualized growth at or above 3.0%. August labor data showed nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation trends remain contained despite headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and upward revisions to its 2026 growth median of 2.3% reflect a still-solid expansion, though net exports and potential moderation in capex pose downside risks. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of the late-October advance estimate, with lower brackets (such as 2.0–2.5% at 19.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
音量
$28,323終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts, recently revised to 5.1% for Q3 2026, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpin the 52.5% market-implied probability for annualized growth at or above 3.0%. August labor data showed nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation trends remain contained despite headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and upward revisions to its 2026 growth median of 2.3% reflect a still-solid expansion, though net exports and potential moderation in capex pose downside risks. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of the late-October advance estimate, with lower brackets (such as 2.0–2.5% at 19.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
音量
$28,323終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Strong Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts, recently revised to 5.1% for Q3 2026, alongside resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpin the 52.5% market-implied probability for annualized growth at or above 3.0%. August labor data showed nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation trends remain contained despite headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and upward revisions to its 2026 growth median of 2.3% reflect a still-solid expansion, though net exports and potential moderation in capex pose downside risks. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of the late-October advance estimate, with lower brackets (such as 2.0–2.5% at 19.5%) reflecting uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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