Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.6% aligned with expectations yet failed to shift consensus forecasts materially lower, as the IMF, OECD, and EY now project full-year UK growth near 0.8% following the Middle East energy shock. Elevated gas and oil prices have pushed implied inflation higher, prompting the Bank of England to signal a prolonged hold on the 3.75% bank rate and limiting rate-cut expectations priced into gilt yields. This environment sustains trader focus on downside risks to consumption and investment, while the slim gap between the 0-1% and 5%+ buckets reflects divergent views on whether the energy impulse proves transitory or triggers a sharper slowdown, with upcoming May CPI and labor-market data serving as near-term swing factors for probability rebalancing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0％未満 20%
4～5％ 19.5%
3～4％ 4.2%
0～1％ 0
新規
新規
2027/02/12
0％未満
20%
0～1％
41%
1〜2％
27%
2～3％
28%
3～4％
6%
4～5％
19%
5％以上
35%
0％未満 20%
4～5％ 19.5%
3～4％ 4.2%
0～1％ 0
新規
新規
2027/02/12
0％未満
$345 Vol.
20%
0～1％
$386 Vol.
41%
1〜2％
$210 Vol.
27%
2～3％
$247 Vol.
28%
3～4％
$201 Vol.
6%
4～5％
$428 Vol.
19%
5％以上
$252 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.6% aligned with expectations yet failed to shift consensus forecasts materially lower, as the IMF, OECD, and EY now project full-year UK growth near 0.8% following the Middle East energy shock. Elevated gas and oil prices have pushed implied inflation higher, prompting the Bank of England to signal a prolonged hold on the 3.75% bank rate and limiting rate-cut expectations priced into gilt yields. This environment sustains trader focus on downside risks to consumption and investment, while the slim gap between the 0-1% and 5%+ buckets reflects divergent views on whether the energy impulse proves transitory or triggers a sharper slowdown, with upcoming May CPI and labor-market data serving as near-term swing factors for probability rebalancing.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
音量
$2,068終了日
2027/02/12マーケット開始日
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.6% aligned with expectations yet failed to shift consensus forecasts materially lower, as the IMF, OECD, and EY now project full-year UK growth near 0.8% following the Middle East energy shock. Elevated gas and oil prices have pushed implied inflation higher, prompting the Bank of England to signal a prolonged hold on the 3.75% bank rate and limiting rate-cut expectations priced into gilt yields. This environment sustains trader focus on downside risks to consumption and investment, while the slim gap between the 0-1% and 5%+ buckets reflects divergent views on whether the energy impulse proves transitory or triggers a sharper slowdown, with upcoming May CPI and labor-market data serving as near-term swing factors for probability rebalancing.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$2,068終了日
2027/02/12マーケット開始日
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.6% aligned with expectations yet failed to shift consensus forecasts materially lower, as the IMF, OECD, and EY now project full-year UK growth near 0.8% following the Middle East energy shock. Elevated gas and oil prices have pushed implied inflation higher, prompting the Bank of England to signal a prolonged hold on the 3.75% bank rate and limiting rate-cut expectations priced into gilt yields. This environment sustains trader focus on downside risks to consumption and investment, while the slim gap between the 0-1% and 5%+ buckets reflects divergent views on whether the energy impulse proves transitory or triggers a sharper slowdown, with upcoming May CPI and labor-market data serving as near-term swing factors for probability rebalancing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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