Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight range around 3%, with implied probabilities of 45.3% at 3.0%, 40.8% at 3.6%, and 40.2% at 3.1%, reflecting divergent institutional forecasts amid resilient early-year data. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook pegged growth at 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January on Middle East conflict and oil shocks—but China's Q1 GDP beat at 5.0% and steady U.S./Eurozone expansions signal upside potential from tech investment and emerging market momentum. Key swing factors include Q2 GDP releases, tariff escalation risks, and central bank easing paths, with OECD's 2.9% call capping enthusiasm while FocusEconomics consensus holds at 2.55% as of May 14.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.9％以下 13%
3.4％ 7.8%
3.5% 2.1%
3.3% 1.6%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
2027/01/15
2.9％以下
13%
3.0%
38%
3.1%
35%
3.2％
39%
3.3%
11%
3.4％
8%
3.5%
2%
3.6％
38%
3.7％以上
26%
2.9％以下 13%
3.4％ 7.8%
3.5% 2.1%
3.3% 1.6%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
2027/01/15
2.9％以下
$3,756 Vol.
13%
3.0%
$481 Vol.
38%
3.1%
$470 Vol.
35%
3.2％
$1,686 Vol.
39%
3.3%
$3,125 Vol.
11%
3.4％
$3,527 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$3,006 Vol.
2%
3.6％
$452 Vol.
38%
3.7％以上
$787 Vol.
26%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight range around 3%, with implied probabilities of 45.3% at 3.0%, 40.8% at 3.6%, and 40.2% at 3.1%, reflecting divergent institutional forecasts amid resilient early-year data. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook pegged growth at 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January on Middle East conflict and oil shocks—but China's Q1 GDP beat at 5.0% and steady U.S./Eurozone expansions signal upside potential from tech investment and emerging market momentum. Key swing factors include Q2 GDP releases, tariff escalation risks, and central bank easing paths, with OECD's 2.9% call capping enthusiasm while FocusEconomics consensus holds at 2.55% as of May 14.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
音量
$17,290終了日
2027/01/15マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight range around 3%, with implied probabilities of 45.3% at 3.0%, 40.8% at 3.6%, and 40.2% at 3.1%, reflecting divergent institutional forecasts amid resilient early-year data. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook pegged growth at 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January on Middle East conflict and oil shocks—but China's Q1 GDP beat at 5.0% and steady U.S./Eurozone expansions signal upside potential from tech investment and emerging market momentum. Key swing factors include Q2 GDP releases, tariff escalation risks, and central bank easing paths, with OECD's 2.9% call capping enthusiasm while FocusEconomics consensus holds at 2.55% as of May 14.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$17,290終了日
2027/01/15マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight range around 3%, with implied probabilities of 45.3% at 3.0%, 40.8% at 3.6%, and 40.2% at 3.1%, reflecting divergent institutional forecasts amid resilient early-year data. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook pegged growth at 3.1%—down 0.2 points from January on Middle East conflict and oil shocks—but China's Q1 GDP beat at 5.0% and steady U.S./Eurozone expansions signal upside potential from tech investment and emerging market momentum. Key swing factors include Q2 GDP releases, tariff escalation risks, and central bank easing paths, with OECD's 2.9% call capping enthusiasm while FocusEconomics consensus holds at 2.55% as of May 14.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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