Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, positioning the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome at 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs above 52, have offset some downside pressure and supported this consensus. Full-year projections from the IMF at 1.9% and the Central Bank Focus survey around 1.85% suggest moderate quarterly expansion aided by base effects from softer Q4 2025 readings, while oil-price volatility and restrictive policy add uncertainty. Traders now focus on the IBGE Q1 release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.9％～2.2％ 53.4%
1.5％～1.8％ 12%
2.3％～2.6％ 8.8%
2.7％以上 4.7%
$20,737 Vol.
$20,737 Vol.
2026/05/29
0.7％未満
2%
0.7％～1.0％
2%
1.1％～1.4％
3%
1.5％～1.8％
31%
1.9％～2.2％
52%
2.3％～2.6％
29%
2.7％以上
10%
1.9％～2.2％ 53.4%
1.5％～1.8％ 12%
2.3％～2.6％ 8.8%
2.7％以上 4.7%
$20,737 Vol.
$20,737 Vol.
2026/05/29
0.7％未満
$14,389 Vol.
2%
0.7％～1.0％
$660 Vol.
2%
1.1％～1.4％
$506 Vol.
3%
1.5％～1.8％
$1,040 Vol.
31%
1.9％～2.2％
$1,631 Vol.
52%
2.3％～2.6％
$684 Vol.
29%
2.7％以上
$1,827 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, positioning the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome at 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs above 52, have offset some downside pressure and supported this consensus. Full-year projections from the IMF at 1.9% and the Central Bank Focus survey around 1.85% suggest moderate quarterly expansion aided by base effects from softer Q4 2025 readings, while oil-price volatility and restrictive policy add uncertainty. Traders now focus on the IBGE Q1 release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
音量
$20,737終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, positioning the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome at 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs above 52, have offset some downside pressure and supported this consensus. Full-year projections from the IMF at 1.9% and the Central Bank Focus survey around 1.85% suggest moderate quarterly expansion aided by base effects from softer Q4 2025 readings, while oil-price volatility and restrictive policy add uncertainty. Traders now focus on the IBGE Q1 release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
音量
$20,737終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, positioning the 1.9%–2.2% range as the market’s leading outcome at 52.4% implied probability. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and April manufacturing and services PMIs above 52, have offset some downside pressure and supported this consensus. Full-year projections from the IMF at 1.9% and the Central Bank Focus survey around 1.85% suggest moderate quarterly expansion aided by base effects from softer Q4 2025 readings, while oil-price volatility and restrictive policy add uncertainty. Traders now focus on the IBGE Q1 release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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