Mexico’s annual inflation for 2026 sits at a market-implied crossroads, with the two leading bins—4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99%—each commanding 39% probability. Recent data show headline CPI easing to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026 from 4.59% in March, while core inflation declined to 4.26%, reflecting moderating food and service prices offset by firmer energy costs. Banxico’s latest forecasts and the consensus from 43 surveyed economists point to a year-end reading near 3.7–4.37%, supported by ongoing monetary easing that has lowered the policy rate to 6.75%. The tight split between the two central bins hinges on whether core disinflation accelerates further or non-core pressures from global energy markets re-emerge, with traders monitoring the May CPI release and the next Banxico decision for clearer directional signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.50%~4.99% 40%
4.00%〜4.49% 22%
5.00%から5.49% 18.4%
3.50%〜3.99% 16.2%
$41,183 Vol.
$41,183 Vol.
2.50%未満
5%
2.50%から2.99%
<1%
3.00%〜3.49%
7%
3.50%〜3.99%
9%
4.00%〜4.49%
38%
4.50%~4.99%
40%
5.00%から5.49%
18%
5.50%以上
30%
4.50%~4.99% 40%
4.00%〜4.49% 22%
5.00%から5.49% 18.4%
3.50%〜3.99% 16.2%
$41,183 Vol.
$41,183 Vol.
2.50%未満
5%
2.50%から2.99%
<1%
3.00%〜3.49%
7%
3.50%〜3.99%
9%
4.00%〜4.49%
38%
4.50%~4.99%
40%
5.00%から5.49%
18%
5.50%以上
30%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
マーケット開始日: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico’s annual inflation for 2026 sits at a market-implied crossroads, with the two leading bins—4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99%—each commanding 39% probability. Recent data show headline CPI easing to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026 from 4.59% in March, while core inflation declined to 4.26%, reflecting moderating food and service prices offset by firmer energy costs. Banxico’s latest forecasts and the consensus from 43 surveyed economists point to a year-end reading near 3.7–4.37%, supported by ongoing monetary easing that has lowered the policy rate to 6.75%. The tight split between the two central bins hinges on whether core disinflation accelerates further or non-core pressures from global energy markets re-emerge, with traders monitoring the May CPI release and the next Banxico decision for clearer directional signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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