Recent October 2026 CPI data showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase, down from 2.9% in September, has reinforced trader positioning around the 2.7-2.9% annual inflation outcome for South Korea. Persistent core inflation at 2.8%, driven by elevated services, durable goods, and energy prices amid Middle East uncertainties, continues to anchor expectations in the upper-2% range despite agricultural price relief. The Bank of Korea's assessment that November readings will remain in the high 2% range, influenced by imported fuel costs and pass-through pressures, has further supported this band over lower or higher alternatives. With the BOK's November 26 policy meeting and additional CPI releases ahead, market-implied odds reflect ongoing cost and demand dynamics rather than a clear disinflation path.
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