Recent upward momentum in India's CPI, reaching 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June amid elevated food and energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions and rupee depreciation, underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation in 2026. RBI projections place FY 2026-27 CPI at 5.0-5.1%, with a Q3 peak near 5.9% before moderating, while professional forecasters align at 5.0%. Core inflation excluding food and fuel remains contained near 3.9-4.3%, but risks of broader pass-through persist. The central bank's neutral stance at a 5.25% repo rate, coupled with hawkish MPC minutes signaling potential recalibration, reflects trader consensus on sustained above-target readings through year-end data releases and policy meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.50%以上 80%
3.75%~4.49% 13.4%
0.75%未満 3.4%
3.00%~3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 Vol.
$78,399 Vol.
0.75%未満
3%
0.75%〜1.49%
1%
1.50%から2.24%
1%
2.25%から2.99%
1%
3.00%~3.74%
2%
3.75%~4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
80%
4.50%以上 80%
3.75%~4.49% 13.4%
0.75%未満 3.4%
3.00%~3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 Vol.
$78,399 Vol.
0.75%未満
3%
0.75%〜1.49%
1%
1.50%から2.24%
1%
2.25%から2.99%
1%
3.00%~3.74%
2%
3.75%~4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
マーケット開始日: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward momentum in India's CPI, reaching 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June amid elevated food and energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions and rupee depreciation, underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation in 2026. RBI projections place FY 2026-27 CPI at 5.0-5.1%, with a Q3 peak near 5.9% before moderating, while professional forecasters align at 5.0%. Core inflation excluding food and fuel remains contained near 3.9-4.3%, but risks of broader pass-through persist. The central bank's neutral stance at a 5.25% repo rate, coupled with hawkish MPC minutes signaling potential recalibration, reflects trader consensus on sustained above-target readings through year-end data releases and policy meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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