Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.0%–0.8% 40%
0.8%–1.6% 35%
-0.8%–0.0% 8.3%
1.6%–2.4% 8%
$22,755 Vol.
$22,755 Vol.
2026/08/17
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
3%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
8%
0.0%–0.8%
40%
0.8%–1.6%
35%
1.6%–2.4%
8%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
2%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 40%
0.8%–1.6% 35%
-0.8%–0.0% 8.3%
1.6%–2.4% 8%
$22,755 Vol.
$22,755 Vol.
2026/08/17
<-2.4%
$1,303 Vol.
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,258 Vol.
3%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$1,889 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,541 Vol.
8%
0.0%–0.8%
$5,973 Vol.
40%
0.8%–1.6%
$6,015 Vol.
35%
1.6%–2.4%
$663 Vol.
8%
2.4%–3.2%
$2,559 Vol.
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$390 Vol.
2%
4.0%+
$165 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$22,755終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$22,755終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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