Recent UK economic data and geopolitical developments have created closely matched trader probabilities across GDP growth ranges for Q2 2026, with 0.0–0.1% at 47.5% implied probability edging out negative growth at 46.5%. Q1 delivered a solid 0.6% QoQ expansion, but this momentum faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock that began in late February, pushing up inflation expectations and pressuring real household incomes. PMI surveys and labor market softening point to a potential slowdown, while forecasters such as the IMF and OECD have trimmed full-year 2026 GDP projections to around 0.8–0.9%. The narrow spread in market-implied odds reflects uncertainty over whether Q1 strength will carry through or if higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions will dominate the quarter’s outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Negative 47%
0.0～0.1％ 44%
0.4～0.5％ 43%
1.0%+ 43%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
Negative
47%
0.0～0.1％
44%
0.2〜0.3％
41%
0.4～0.5％
43%
0.6～0.7％
42%
0.8〜0.9%
42%
1.0%+
43%
Negative 47%
0.0～0.1％ 44%
0.4～0.5％ 43%
1.0%+ 43%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
Negative
$0 Vol.
47%
0.0～0.1％
$0 Vol.
44%
0.2〜0.3％
$0 Vol.
41%
0.4～0.5％
$0 Vol.
43%
0.6～0.7％
$0 Vol.
42%
0.8〜0.9%
$8 Vol.
42%
1.0%+
$40 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and geopolitical developments have created closely matched trader probabilities across GDP growth ranges for Q2 2026, with 0.0–0.1% at 47.5% implied probability edging out negative growth at 46.5%. Q1 delivered a solid 0.6% QoQ expansion, but this momentum faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock that began in late February, pushing up inflation expectations and pressuring real household incomes. PMI surveys and labor market softening point to a potential slowdown, while forecasters such as the IMF and OECD have trimmed full-year 2026 GDP projections to around 0.8–0.9%. The narrow spread in market-implied odds reflects uncertainty over whether Q1 strength will carry through or if higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions will dominate the quarter’s outcome.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
音量
$48終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and geopolitical developments have created closely matched trader probabilities across GDP growth ranges for Q2 2026, with 0.0–0.1% at 47.5% implied probability edging out negative growth at 46.5%. Q1 delivered a solid 0.6% QoQ expansion, but this momentum faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock that began in late February, pushing up inflation expectations and pressuring real household incomes. PMI surveys and labor market softening point to a potential slowdown, while forecasters such as the IMF and OECD have trimmed full-year 2026 GDP projections to around 0.8–0.9%. The narrow spread in market-implied odds reflects uncertainty over whether Q1 strength will carry through or if higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions will dominate the quarter’s outcome.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$48終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK economic data and geopolitical developments have created closely matched trader probabilities across GDP growth ranges for Q2 2026, with 0.0–0.1% at 47.5% implied probability edging out negative growth at 46.5%. Q1 delivered a solid 0.6% QoQ expansion, but this momentum faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock that began in late February, pushing up inflation expectations and pressuring real household incomes. PMI surveys and labor market softening point to a potential slowdown, while forecasters such as the IMF and OECD have trimmed full-year 2026 GDP projections to around 0.8–0.9%. The narrow spread in market-implied odds reflects uncertainty over whether Q1 strength will carry through or if higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions will dominate the quarter’s outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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