Recent developments, including the Bank of Japan's July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 1.0% following the June 25 basis point hike, underpin the 59.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. The central bank's revised Outlook lowered its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing government energy relief measures, while noting balanced risks to activity and persistent upward pressures from yen depreciation and AI-driven demand. This cautious stance, combined with resilient domestic growth projections, tempers expectations for further tightening despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. Market-implied odds assign 38.5% to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting ongoing vigilance on price stability ahead of the September and October Monetary Policy Meetings, while probabilities for cuts remain minimal at under 5% each.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 60%
25 bps increase 39%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
新規
新規
2026/10/30
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
60%
25 bps increase
39%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 60%
25 bps increase 39%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
新規
新規
2026/10/30
50+ bps decrease
$35 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$35 Vol.
3%
No change
$979 Vol.
60%
25 bps increase
$1,753 Vol.
39%
50+ bps increase
$35 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments, including the Bank of Japan's July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 1.0% following the June 25 basis point hike, underpin the 59.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. The central bank's revised Outlook lowered its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing government energy relief measures, while noting balanced risks to activity and persistent upward pressures from yen depreciation and AI-driven demand. This cautious stance, combined with resilient domestic growth projections, tempers expectations for further tightening despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. Market-implied odds assign 38.5% to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting ongoing vigilance on price stability ahead of the September and October Monetary Policy Meetings, while probabilities for cuts remain minimal at under 5% each.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$2,836終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments, including the Bank of Japan's July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 1.0% following the June 25 basis point hike, underpin the 59.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. The central bank's revised Outlook lowered its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing government energy relief measures, while noting balanced risks to activity and persistent upward pressures from yen depreciation and AI-driven demand. This cautious stance, combined with resilient domestic growth projections, tempers expectations for further tightening despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. Market-implied odds assign 38.5% to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting ongoing vigilance on price stability ahead of the September and October Monetary Policy Meetings, while probabilities for cuts remain minimal at under 5% each.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$2,836終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments, including the Bank of Japan's July 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 1.0% following the June 25 basis point hike, underpin the 59.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. The central bank's revised Outlook lowered its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing government energy relief measures, while noting balanced risks to activity and persistent upward pressures from yen depreciation and AI-driven demand. This cautious stance, combined with resilient domestic growth projections, tempers expectations for further tightening despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. Market-implied odds assign 38.5% to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting ongoing vigilance on price stability ahead of the September and October Monetary Policy Meetings, while probabilities for cuts remain minimal at under 5% each.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問