Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 2.5–2.9% range for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation at a leading 58.1% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year—the highest in months—fueled by gasoline prices spiking 21% amid Middle East oil disruptions from the Iran conflict. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, lifting its 2026 average inflation forecast to 2.3% from 2.0%, citing energy shocks and U.S. tariff pressures offsetting prior disinflation. The nearby 1.5–1.9% outcome at 41.9% reflects bets on potential cooling via base effects, though upside risks dominate sentiment. Watch April CPI data due May 19 and the June 10 policy announcement for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.5~2.9% 48.7%
3.5〜3.9% 40.3%
2.0〜2.4% 20.0%
1.0~1.4% 1.2%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
1.0%未満
1%
1.0~1.4%
6%
1.5~1.9%
40%
2.0〜2.4%
20%
2.5~2.9%
49%
3.0〜3.4%
45%
3.5〜3.9%
40%
4.0%以上
39%
2.5~2.9% 48.7%
3.5〜3.9% 40.3%
2.0〜2.4% 20.0%
1.0~1.4% 1.2%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
1.0%未満
1%
1.0~1.4%
6%
1.5~1.9%
40%
2.0〜2.4%
20%
2.5~2.9%
49%
3.0〜3.4%
45%
3.5〜3.9%
40%
4.0%以上
39%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 2.5–2.9% range for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation at a leading 58.1% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI accelerating to 2.4% year-over-year—the highest in months—fueled by gasoline prices spiking 21% amid Middle East oil disruptions from the Iran conflict. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, lifting its 2026 average inflation forecast to 2.3% from 2.0%, citing energy shocks and U.S. tariff pressures offsetting prior disinflation. The nearby 1.5–1.9% outcome at 41.9% reflects bets on potential cooling via base effects, though upside risks dominate sentiment. Watch April CPI data due May 19 and the June 10 policy announcement for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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