Recent extension of the US-China trade truce to January 2027, following September meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Vice Premier He Lifeng, and Presidents Trump and Xi, has eased immediate tariff and export control pressures, contributing to the near-even odds. Targeted US sanctions on Chinese entities tied to Iran oil purchases and weapons procurement have continued under existing authorities, yet these secondary measures have not escalated into broader new restrictions on China. Ongoing negotiations over agricultural purchases, rare earths, and fentanyl precursors, alongside China's retaliatory export controls on US firms, sustain competitive balance. Further diplomatic progress or de-escalation signals before October 31 could reinforce the current trader consensus, while renewed tensions over Iran, Taiwan, or stalled talks might shift probabilities toward affirmative resolution.