**The ongoing Supreme Court inquiry into Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's alleged ties to banker Daniel Vorcaro and funding for the film "Dark Horse" has not progressed to formal charges or arrest as of mid-September 2026.** Opened in July and unsealed publicly around September 11, the probe examines possible money laundering, corruption, and related offenses but remains in the investigative phase under Justice André Mendonça, with Bolsonaro denying wrongdoing and calling for transparency. Brazil's legal process—requiring federal police findings, prosecutor review, and court approval—typically moves too slowly for resolution within the remaining days before September 30, especially with the October presidential election approaching and Bolsonaro actively campaigning. Traders' 95.3% implied probability on "No" aligns with these procedural barriers and the absence of imminent enforcement signals. Late developments, such as new evidence prompting expedited action by authorities or political pressure amid the tight race, could still shift the outcome before the deadline.