John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role with no announced plans to depart. Recent developments include his June 2026 remarks on agency priorities, an unannounced August 2026 trip to Moscow for diplomatic messaging on NATO and Iran, and September 2026 reports positioning him for expanded involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Internal intelligence community shifts, including reduced competition at the DNI level, have further strengthened his standing. With roughly three months until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no emerging signs of removal or resignation, the 88.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the absence of political or procedural catalysts for change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role with no announced plans to depart. Recent developments include his June 2026 remarks on agency priorities, an unannounced August 2026 trip to Moscow for diplomatic messaging on NATO and Iran, and September 2026 reports positioning him for expanded involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Internal intelligence community shifts, including reduced competition at the DNI level, have further strengthened his standing. With roughly three months until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no emerging signs of removal or resignation, the 88.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the absence of political or procedural catalysts for change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
音量
$1,497終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role with no announced plans to depart. Recent developments include his June 2026 remarks on agency priorities, an unannounced August 2026 trip to Moscow for diplomatic messaging on NATO and Iran, and September 2026 reports positioning him for expanded involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Internal intelligence community shifts, including reduced competition at the DNI level, have further strengthened his standing. With roughly three months until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no emerging signs of removal or resignation, the 88.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the absence of political or procedural catalysts for change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,497終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role with no announced plans to depart. Recent developments include his June 2026 remarks on agency priorities, an unannounced August 2026 trip to Moscow for diplomatic messaging on NATO and Iran, and September 2026 reports positioning him for expanded involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Internal intelligence community shifts, including reduced competition at the DNI level, have further strengthened his standing. With roughly three months until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no emerging signs of removal or resignation, the 88.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the absence of political or procedural catalysts for change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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