Hungary's political transition following Viktor Orbán's tenure has prompted corruption investigations into alleged misuse of public funds and related incidents during his time in office. Prosecutors conducted raids on Fidesz-linked servers in July 2026 as part of probes into grant irregularities, yet these actions have targeted party networks and officials rather than producing direct charges or arrest warrants against Orbán himself. The incoming administration under Péter Magyar has signaled further scrutiny, including potential EU-level cooperation, but procedural requirements, institutional safeguards, and the absence of personal indictments create significant barriers to detention before year-end. Traders reflect this reality in the 88% probability assigned to no arrest by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$30,967 Vol.
$30,967 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
$30,967 Vol.
$30,967 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hungary's political transition following Viktor Orbán's tenure has prompted corruption investigations into alleged misuse of public funds and related incidents during his time in office. Prosecutors conducted raids on Fidesz-linked servers in July 2026 as part of probes into grant irregularities, yet these actions have targeted party networks and officials rather than producing direct charges or arrest warrants against Orbán himself. The incoming administration under Péter Magyar has signaled further scrutiny, including potential EU-level cooperation, but procedural requirements, institutional safeguards, and the absence of personal indictments create significant barriers to detention before year-end. Traders reflect this reality in the 88% probability assigned to no arrest by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
音量
$30,967終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hungary's political transition following Viktor Orbán's tenure has prompted corruption investigations into alleged misuse of public funds and related incidents during his time in office. Prosecutors conducted raids on Fidesz-linked servers in July 2026 as part of probes into grant irregularities, yet these actions have targeted party networks and officials rather than producing direct charges or arrest warrants against Orbán himself. The incoming administration under Péter Magyar has signaled further scrutiny, including potential EU-level cooperation, but procedural requirements, institutional safeguards, and the absence of personal indictments create significant barriers to detention before year-end. Traders reflect this reality in the 88% probability assigned to no arrest by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$30,967終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hungary's political transition following Viktor Orbán's tenure has prompted corruption investigations into alleged misuse of public funds and related incidents during his time in office. Prosecutors conducted raids on Fidesz-linked servers in July 2026 as part of probes into grant irregularities, yet these actions have targeted party networks and officials rather than producing direct charges or arrest warrants against Orbán himself. The incoming administration under Péter Magyar has signaled further scrutiny, including potential EU-level cooperation, but procedural requirements, institutional safeguards, and the absence of personal indictments create significant barriers to detention before year-end. Traders reflect this reality in the 88% probability assigned to no arrest by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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