Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$62,628 Vol.
2026/11/03
テキサス州
84%
Kansas
73%
アラスカ州
69%
ミシガン州
62%
アイオワ
62%
オハイオ（特別）
57%
メイン州
54%
ニューハンプシャー州
63%
ネブラスカ州
50%
South Carolina
42%
ジョージア州
27%
フロリダ（特別）
25%
ミネソタ州
20%
ノースカロライナ州
13%
ニューメキシコ州
12%
モンタナ
9%
バージニア州
4%
コロラド州
4%
$62,628 Vol.
テキサス州
$7,129 Vol.
84%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
73%
アラスカ州
$2,789 Vol.
69%
ミシガン州
$2,735 Vol.
62%
アイオワ
$5,645 Vol.
62%
オハイオ（特別）
$3,936 Vol.
57%
メイン州
$1,020 Vol.
54%
ニューハンプシャー州
$2,352 Vol.
63%
ネブラスカ州
$3,687 Vol.
50%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
42%
ジョージア州
$1,394 Vol.
27%
フロリダ（特別）
$2,450 Vol.
25%
ミネソタ州
$9,715 Vol.
20%
ノースカロライナ州
$5,584 Vol.
13%
ニューメキシコ州
$6,665 Vol.
12%
モンタナ
$2,919 Vol.
9%
バージニア州
$1,344 Vol.
4%
コロラド州
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$62,628終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$62,628終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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