In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/11/03
オハイオ（特別）
51%
バージニア州
50%
フロリダ（特別）
50%
ノースカロライナ州
50%
ジョージア州
50%
ミネソタ州
50%
モンタナ
50%
テキサス州
50%
メイン州
50%
ミシガン州
50%
アイオワ
50%
アラスカ州
50%
ニューハンプシャー州
50%
ネブラスカ州
50%
ニューメキシコ州
50%
コロラド州
50%
$0.00 Vol.
オハイオ（特別）
$0 Vol.
51%
バージニア州
$0 Vol.
50%
フロリダ（特別）
$0 Vol.
50%
ノースカロライナ州
$0 Vol.
50%
ジョージア州
$0 Vol.
50%
ミネソタ州
$0 Vol.
50%
モンタナ
$0 Vol.
50%
テキサス州
$0 Vol.
50%
メイン州
$0 Vol.
50%
ミシガン州
$0 Vol.
50%
アイオワ
$0 Vol.
50%
アラスカ州
$0 Vol.
50%
ニューハンプシャー州
$0 Vol.
50%
ネブラスカ州
$0 Vol.
50%
ニューメキシコ州
$0 Vol.
50%
コロラド州
$0 Vol.
50%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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