PP’s dominant position in the elected Senate market reflects its sustained polling lead of several points over the PSOE ahead of the November 29 election, reinforced by an October pact with Vox that coordinates candidacies across 23 provinces to consolidate right-wing votes and limit fragmentation. The agreement, under which Vox withdraws lists in six provinces and fields limited candidates elsewhere while PP includes Vox-backed independents, positions the center-right bloc to capture the largest share of the 208 directly elected seats. Left parties responded with a joint “Senado de Progreso” slate, yet projections still favor PP securing a plurality or outright majority among elected senators. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 91.5 percent, though shifts in turnout or late campaign developments could narrow margins in key provinces.