President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is weighing a new nomination to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) following the Senate’s April 29 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Lula has signaled intent to submit another name, possibly a female candidate, to fill the vacancy left by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Senate confirmation requires 41 votes amid opposition resistance and tensions ahead of the October 2026 presidential election. Traders assess the likelihood of an announcement by specific deadlines based on Lula’s public statements, Senate leadership dynamics under President Davi Alcolumbre, and the political costs of further delays or rejections during the campaign period. No new nomination has been formally sent since the April setback.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,084 Vol.
2026/12/31
6月30日
19%
9月30日
54%
12月31日
76%
$13,084 Vol.
6月30日
$9,102 Vol.
19%
9月30日
$1,416 Vol.
54%
12月31日
$2,565 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is weighing a new nomination to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) following the Senate’s April 29 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Lula has signaled intent to submit another name, possibly a female candidate, to fill the vacancy left by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Senate confirmation requires 41 votes amid opposition resistance and tensions ahead of the October 2026 presidential election. Traders assess the likelihood of an announcement by specific deadlines based on Lula’s public statements, Senate leadership dynamics under President Davi Alcolumbre, and the political costs of further delays or rejections during the campaign period. No new nomination has been formally sent since the April setback.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
音量
$13,084終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is weighing a new nomination to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) following the Senate’s April 29 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Lula has signaled intent to submit another name, possibly a female candidate, to fill the vacancy left by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Senate confirmation requires 41 votes amid opposition resistance and tensions ahead of the October 2026 presidential election. Traders assess the likelihood of an announcement by specific deadlines based on Lula’s public statements, Senate leadership dynamics under President Davi Alcolumbre, and the political costs of further delays or rejections during the campaign period. No new nomination has been formally sent since the April setback.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$13,084終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is weighing a new nomination to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) following the Senate’s April 29 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Lula has signaled intent to submit another name, possibly a female candidate, to fill the vacancy left by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Senate confirmation requires 41 votes amid opposition resistance and tensions ahead of the October 2026 presidential election. Traders assess the likelihood of an announcement by specific deadlines based on Lula’s public statements, Senate leadership dynamics under President Davi Alcolumbre, and the political costs of further delays or rejections during the campaign period. No new nomination has been formally sent since the April setback.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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