Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained cross-strait gray-zone pressure, regularized PLA aircraft carrier transits, and ADIZ incursions rather than amphibious assault preparations. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang drills, including record reservist mobilization and tests of dispersed arms production, underscore defensive enhancements amid ongoing diplomatic exchanges and opposition-party outreach to Beijing. High logistical, economic, and escalation risks continue to favor coercion short of war, consistent with historical patterns. Low-probability shifts remain possible through rapid U.S. policy changes, leadership transitions in Beijing, or miscalculation during live-fire exercises in the strait.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$39,715,875 Vol.
$39,715,875 Vol.
はい
$39,715,875 Vol.
$39,715,875 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained cross-strait gray-zone pressure, regularized PLA aircraft carrier transits, and ADIZ incursions rather than amphibious assault preparations. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang drills, including record reservist mobilization and tests of dispersed arms production, underscore defensive enhancements amid ongoing diplomatic exchanges and opposition-party outreach to Beijing. High logistical, economic, and escalation risks continue to favor coercion short of war, consistent with historical patterns. Low-probability shifts remain possible through rapid U.S. policy changes, leadership transitions in Beijing, or miscalculation during live-fire exercises in the strait.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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