Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the brief remaining window, U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers coercive pressure over amphibious assault, and the prohibitive economic and military risks of conflict. Recent months have featured routine PLA live-fire drills in the strait, expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, and Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang reservist exercises, yet these actions align with ongoing gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections while highlighting unification through non-military means. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen Taiwanese provocation, sudden leadership change in Beijing, or rapid U.S. policy reversal, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$39,718,074 Vol.
$39,718,074 Vol.
はい
$39,718,074 Vol.
$39,718,074 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the brief remaining window, U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers coercive pressure over amphibious assault, and the prohibitive economic and military risks of conflict. Recent months have featured routine PLA live-fire drills in the strait, expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, and Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang reservist exercises, yet these actions align with ongoing gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections while highlighting unification through non-military means. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen Taiwanese provocation, sudden leadership change in Beijing, or rapid U.S. policy reversal, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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