US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
2026/12/31
4%を獲得
はい
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
2026/12/31
4%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
音量
$23,356,221終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$23,356,221終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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