Trader consensus prices an 89.1% probability on "No" for any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements or verifiable progress from leading candidates South Korea and Japan. South Korea's Foreign Minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in early April 2026, despite public polls showing domestic support amid North Korean missile tests. Japan's government has not shifted from its three non-nuclear principles, even as New START's February expiration sparked regional arms control fears. US extended deterrence assurances, technical hurdles, and the tight timeline—requiring years for a viable arsenal—reinforce the low odds, with no scheduled events poised to alter this trajectory before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices an 89.1% probability on "No" for any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements or verifiable progress from leading candidates South Korea and Japan. South Korea's Foreign Minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in early April 2026, despite public polls showing domestic support amid North Korean missile tests. Japan's government has not shifted from its three non-nuclear principles, even as New START's February expiration sparked regional arms control fears. US extended deterrence assurances, technical hurdles, and the tight timeline—requiring years for a viable arsenal—reinforce the low odds, with no scheduled events poised to alter this trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,760終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices an 89.1% probability on "No" for any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements or verifiable progress from leading candidates South Korea and Japan. South Korea's Foreign Minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in early April 2026, despite public polls showing domestic support amid North Korean missile tests. Japan's government has not shifted from its three non-nuclear principles, even as New START's February expiration sparked regional arms control fears. US extended deterrence assurances, technical hurdles, and the tight timeline—requiring years for a viable arsenal—reinforce the low odds, with no scheduled events poised to alter this trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$6,760終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89.1% probability on "No" for any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements or verifiable progress from leading candidates South Korea and Japan. South Korea's Foreign Minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in early April 2026, despite public polls showing domestic support amid North Korean missile tests. Japan's government has not shifted from its three non-nuclear principles, even as New START's February expiration sparked regional arms control fears. US extended deterrence assurances, technical hurdles, and the tight timeline—requiring years for a viable arsenal—reinforce the low odds, with no scheduled events poised to alter this trajectory before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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