Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no public signals of reversing this stance ahead of the August 31 deadline. NATO allies have repeatedly reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration path, including post-2023 summit statements removing prior procedural hurdles, while recent peace proposals referencing neutrality guarantees have been rejected by Kyiv. Domestic political consensus, public opinion, and the absence of any scheduled diplomatic breakthroughs or leadership shifts within the narrow three-week window underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement. Late developments such as sudden concessions in negotiations or external pressure could theoretically alter the trajectory, though current evidence shows no momentum toward such an outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
1% 確率
$22,848 Vol.
$22,848 Vol.
2026/08/31
はい
1% 確率
$22,848 Vol.
$22,848 Vol.
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no public signals of reversing this stance ahead of the August 31 deadline. NATO allies have repeatedly reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration path, including post-2023 summit statements removing prior procedural hurdles, while recent peace proposals referencing neutrality guarantees have been rejected by Kyiv. Domestic political consensus, public opinion, and the absence of any scheduled diplomatic breakthroughs or leadership shifts within the narrow three-week window underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement. Late developments such as sudden concessions in negotiations or external pressure could theoretically alter the trajectory, though current evidence shows no momentum toward such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
音量
$22,848終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no public signals of reversing this stance ahead of the August 31 deadline. NATO allies have repeatedly reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration path, including post-2023 summit statements removing prior procedural hurdles, while recent peace proposals referencing neutrality guarantees have been rejected by Kyiv. Domestic political consensus, public opinion, and the absence of any scheduled diplomatic breakthroughs or leadership shifts within the narrow three-week window underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement. Late developments such as sudden concessions in negotiations or external pressure could theoretically alter the trajectory, though current evidence shows no momentum toward such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$22,848終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no public signals of reversing this stance ahead of the August 31 deadline. NATO allies have repeatedly reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration path, including post-2023 summit statements removing prior procedural hurdles, while recent peace proposals referencing neutrality guarantees have been rejected by Kyiv. Domestic political consensus, public opinion, and the absence of any scheduled diplomatic breakthroughs or leadership shifts within the narrow three-week window underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement. Late developments such as sudden concessions in negotiations or external pressure could theoretically alter the trajectory, though current evidence shows no momentum toward such an outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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