Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO membership as a core security goal, reinforced by repeated alliance statements affirming an "irreversible path" to accession when conditions allow. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced pledges of €70 billion in military aid without any linkage to renouncing membership ambitions, while ongoing battlefield developments—including Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk—underscore active hostilities rather than negotiated concessions. Trader consensus at 99.1% on "No" reflects the absence of diplomatic signals or bilateral talks capable of producing such an agreement before the August 31 deadline. A breakthrough peace framework involving major territorial or security trade-offs could theoretically alter this, though no such process has advanced near resolution in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
<1% 確率
$25,331 Vol.
$25,331 Vol.
2026/08/31
はい
<1% 確率
$25,331 Vol.
$25,331 Vol.
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO membership as a core security goal, reinforced by repeated alliance statements affirming an "irreversible path" to accession when conditions allow. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced pledges of €70 billion in military aid without any linkage to renouncing membership ambitions, while ongoing battlefield developments—including Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk—underscore active hostilities rather than negotiated concessions. Trader consensus at 99.1% on "No" reflects the absence of diplomatic signals or bilateral talks capable of producing such an agreement before the August 31 deadline. A breakthrough peace framework involving major territorial or security trade-offs could theoretically alter this, though no such process has advanced near resolution in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
音量
$25,331終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO membership as a core security goal, reinforced by repeated alliance statements affirming an "irreversible path" to accession when conditions allow. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced pledges of €70 billion in military aid without any linkage to renouncing membership ambitions, while ongoing battlefield developments—including Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk—underscore active hostilities rather than negotiated concessions. Trader consensus at 99.1% on "No" reflects the absence of diplomatic signals or bilateral talks capable of producing such an agreement before the August 31 deadline. A breakthrough peace framework involving major territorial or security trade-offs could theoretically alter this, though no such process has advanced near resolution in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$25,331終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO membership as a core security goal, reinforced by repeated alliance statements affirming an "irreversible path" to accession when conditions allow. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced pledges of €70 billion in military aid without any linkage to renouncing membership ambitions, while ongoing battlefield developments—including Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk—underscore active hostilities rather than negotiated concessions. Trader consensus at 99.1% on "No" reflects the absence of diplomatic signals or bilateral talks capable of producing such an agreement before the August 31 deadline. A breakthrough peace framework involving major territorial or security trade-offs could theoretically alter this, though no such process has advanced near resolution in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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