Traders assign China a low probability of invading Taiwan by mid-2027 due to the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or force posture shifts that would precede such an operation. Recent developments reinforce this view: Taiwan completed its largest Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, testing reservist call-ups, supply chain relocation, and resilience measures, while China responded with limited live-fire drills in the Strait during July but maintained reduced air defense identification zone incursions compared with prior years. U.S. assessments from earlier in 2026 noted Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification amid economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and alliance commitments. Ongoing gray-zone pressure continues without crossing into invasion indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
9% 確率
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
2027/06/30
はい
9% 確率
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign China a low probability of invading Taiwan by mid-2027 due to the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or force posture shifts that would precede such an operation. Recent developments reinforce this view: Taiwan completed its largest Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, testing reservist call-ups, supply chain relocation, and resilience measures, while China responded with limited live-fire drills in the Strait during July but maintained reduced air defense identification zone incursions compared with prior years. U.S. assessments from earlier in 2026 noted Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification amid economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and alliance commitments. Ongoing gray-zone pressure continues without crossing into invasion indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
音量
$419,407終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign China a low probability of invading Taiwan by mid-2027 due to the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or force posture shifts that would precede such an operation. Recent developments reinforce this view: Taiwan completed its largest Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, testing reservist call-ups, supply chain relocation, and resilience measures, while China responded with limited live-fire drills in the Strait during July but maintained reduced air defense identification zone incursions compared with prior years. U.S. assessments from earlier in 2026 noted Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification amid economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and alliance commitments. Ongoing gray-zone pressure continues without crossing into invasion indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$419,407終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign China a low probability of invading Taiwan by mid-2027 due to the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or force posture shifts that would precede such an operation. Recent developments reinforce this view: Taiwan completed its largest Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, testing reservist call-ups, supply chain relocation, and resilience measures, while China responded with limited live-fire drills in the Strait during July but maintained reduced air defense identification zone incursions compared with prior years. U.S. assessments from earlier in 2026 noted Beijing’s preference for non-kinetic unification amid economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and alliance commitments. Ongoing gray-zone pressure continues without crossing into invasion indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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