Recent U.S.-China summit talks between Presidents Trump and Xi have kept cross-strait tensions contained, with Xi highlighting Taiwan as the core bilateral issue while both sides avoided immediate escalation and Trump signaled willingness to use arms sales as leverage. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and naval activity around Taiwan continues at levels below prior peaks, reflecting adjusted coercion tactics rather than invasion preparation. Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability to “No” because no large-scale mobilization, blockade rehearsals, or fixed timelines have materialized, consistent with U.S. assessments that Beijing lacks current plans for military action by late 2027. Ongoing diplomatic channels, Taiwan’s incremental defense spending, and mutual economic interdependence further support the current consensus, though abrupt shifts in U.S. posture or Taiwanese political moves could alter the balance within the resolution window.