Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization to date and tests of arms production relocation under simulated attack, underscore defensive preparations without signs of imminent PRC action. Reduced PLA ADIZ incursions throughout 2026, first U.S.-Taiwan coast guard patrols, and continued diplomatic channels reflect managed tensions rather than acute escalation. Beijing’s statements continue to emphasize peaceful reunification preferences tied to Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition dynamics, while U.S. assessments have not identified near-term invasion plans. These factors sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the end of 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$2,701,436 Vol.
$2,701,436 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
はい
13% 確率
$2,701,436 Vol.
$2,701,436 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization to date and tests of arms production relocation under simulated attack, underscore defensive preparations without signs of imminent PRC action. Reduced PLA ADIZ incursions throughout 2026, first U.S.-Taiwan coast guard patrols, and continued diplomatic channels reflect managed tensions rather than acute escalation. Beijing’s statements continue to emphasize peaceful reunification preferences tied to Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition dynamics, while U.S. assessments have not identified near-term invasion plans. These factors sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$2,701,436終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization to date and tests of arms production relocation under simulated attack, underscore defensive preparations without signs of imminent PRC action. Reduced PLA ADIZ incursions throughout 2026, first U.S.-Taiwan coast guard patrols, and continued diplomatic channels reflect managed tensions rather than acute escalation. Beijing’s statements continue to emphasize peaceful reunification preferences tied to Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition dynamics, while U.S. assessments have not identified near-term invasion plans. These factors sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,701,436終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, featuring the largest reservist mobilization to date and tests of arms production relocation under simulated attack, underscore defensive preparations without signs of imminent PRC action. Reduced PLA ADIZ incursions throughout 2026, first U.S.-Taiwan coast guard patrols, and continued diplomatic channels reflect managed tensions rather than acute escalation. Beijing’s statements continue to emphasize peaceful reunification preferences tied to Taiwan’s 2028 elections and opposition dynamics, while U.S. assessments have not identified near-term invasion plans. These factors sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the end of 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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