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icon for 北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?

北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?

icon for 北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?

北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

7% 確率
Polymarket

$75,944 Vol.

はい

7% 確率
Polymarket

$75,944 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s March 2026 constitutional amendments, made public in early May, removed all references to unification and redefined its territory as bordering China, Russia, and the Republic of Korea, formalizing the “two hostile states” framework first declared in late 2023. These changes signal Pyongyang’s policy of assurance against initiating hostilities and its shift toward securing recognition as a nuclear power through northern diplomacy with Russia and China. Routine missile launches, artillery upgrades targeting Seoul, and border fortification continue without accompanying troop mobilization or invasion indicators. South Korea’s government under President Lee Jae Myung has responded with engagement overtures focused on peaceful coexistence. Traders price the “no” outcome at 93.5 percent because these developments indicate North Korea prioritizes deterrence, sanctions relief, and external alliances over large-scale offensive action through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$75,944
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s March 2026 constitutional amendments, made public in early May, removed all references to unification and redefined its territory as bordering China, Russia, and the Republic of Korea, formalizing the “two hostile states” framework first declared in late 2023. These changes signal Pyongyang’s policy of assurance against initiating hostilities and its shift toward securing recognition as a nuclear power through northern diplomacy with Russia and China. Routine missile launches, artillery upgrades targeting Seoul, and border fortification continue without accompanying troop mobilization or invasion indicators. South Korea’s government under President Lee Jae Myung has responded with engagement overtures focused on peaceful coexistence. Traders price the “no” outcome at 93.5 percent because these developments indicate North Korea prioritizes deterrence, sanctions relief, and external alliances over large-scale offensive action through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$75,944
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国を侵攻しますか?」で7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?」は$75.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?」の現在のリーダーは「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国を侵攻しますか?」でわずか7%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「北朝鮮は2027年までに韓国に侵攻するだろうか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。