Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$3,214,189 Vol.
$3,214,189 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$3,214,189 Vol.
$3,214,189 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
音量
$3,214,189終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,214,189終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026 due to U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for invasion, alongside a preference for gray-zone coercion and economic integration over kinetic action. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, paired with Chinese live-fire drills and blockade simulations that signal pressure without crossing into direct engagement. Diplomatic contacts, such as the Kuomintang chair’s April 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping emphasizing peace and prosperity, and U.S.-China summit discussions on Taiwan as a sensitive but manageable issue, further support continuity of the status quo. The brief remaining window to December 31, 2026, reinforces the market’s view that escalation thresholds remain high absent unforeseen triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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