US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive costs, amphibious limitations, and preference for unification through non-force measures. This assessment aligns with recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated standard positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Taiwan's legislature approved a $25 billion defense spending increase in early May, reinforcing deterrence alongside routine PLA gray-zone activity such as ADIZ incursions and coast guard patrols that have not crossed into open conflict. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no clash before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and absence of imminent signals, though scheduled summits or shifts in regional force posture could still alter probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,789,798 Vol.
$1,789,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,789,798 Vol.
$1,789,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive costs, amphibious limitations, and preference for unification through non-force measures. This assessment aligns with recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated standard positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Taiwan's legislature approved a $25 billion defense spending increase in early May, reinforcing deterrence alongside routine PLA gray-zone activity such as ADIZ incursions and coast guard patrols that have not crossed into open conflict. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no clash before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and absence of imminent signals, though scheduled summits or shifts in regional force posture could still alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
音量
$1,789,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive costs, amphibious limitations, and preference for unification through non-force measures. This assessment aligns with recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated standard positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Taiwan's legislature approved a $25 billion defense spending increase in early May, reinforcing deterrence alongside routine PLA gray-zone activity such as ADIZ incursions and coast guard patrols that have not crossed into open conflict. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no clash before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and absence of imminent signals, though scheduled summits or shifts in regional force posture could still alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,789,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan by 2027, citing prohibitive costs, amphibious limitations, and preference for unification through non-force measures. This assessment aligns with recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where both sides reiterated standard positions on cross-strait stability without triggering escalation. Taiwan's legislature approved a $25 billion defense spending increase in early May, reinforcing deterrence alongside routine PLA gray-zone activity such as ADIZ incursions and coast guard patrols that have not crossed into open conflict. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no clash before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and absence of imminent signals, though scheduled summits or shifts in regional force posture could still alter probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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