Despite heightened rhetoric at the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, where President Xi warned of potential "clashes" over Taiwan independence and U.S. arms sales, bilateral diplomacy persists without rupture, anchoring trader consensus at 93.5% for no U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Routine gray-zone activities continue unabated—such as a Chinese frigate shadowing a suspected U.S. destroyer for 20 hours in the Taiwan Strait on April 20, Japanese warship transits monitored by PLA patrols, and a Chinese jet intercepting a U.S. B-52 over the South China Sea on May 9—but fall short of kinetic conflict, reflecting mutual deterrence and economic interdependence. Taiwan's legislative gridlock delaying defense budgets adds uncertainty, yet no invasion signals or red-line crossings have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though sudden escalations like intensified blockades remain possible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$111,777 Vol.
$111,777 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$111,777 Vol.
$111,777 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite heightened rhetoric at the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, where President Xi warned of potential "clashes" over Taiwan independence and U.S. arms sales, bilateral diplomacy persists without rupture, anchoring trader consensus at 93.5% for no U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Routine gray-zone activities continue unabated—such as a Chinese frigate shadowing a suspected U.S. destroyer for 20 hours in the Taiwan Strait on April 20, Japanese warship transits monitored by PLA patrols, and a Chinese jet intercepting a U.S. B-52 over the South China Sea on May 9—but fall short of kinetic conflict, reflecting mutual deterrence and economic interdependence. Taiwan's legislative gridlock delaying defense budgets adds uncertainty, yet no invasion signals or red-line crossings have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though sudden escalations like intensified blockades remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$111,777終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite heightened rhetoric at the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, where President Xi warned of potential "clashes" over Taiwan independence and U.S. arms sales, bilateral diplomacy persists without rupture, anchoring trader consensus at 93.5% for no U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Routine gray-zone activities continue unabated—such as a Chinese frigate shadowing a suspected U.S. destroyer for 20 hours in the Taiwan Strait on April 20, Japanese warship transits monitored by PLA patrols, and a Chinese jet intercepting a U.S. B-52 over the South China Sea on May 9—but fall short of kinetic conflict, reflecting mutual deterrence and economic interdependence. Taiwan's legislative gridlock delaying defense budgets adds uncertainty, yet no invasion signals or red-line crossings have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though sudden escalations like intensified blockades remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$111,777終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite heightened rhetoric at the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, where President Xi warned of potential "clashes" over Taiwan independence and U.S. arms sales, bilateral diplomacy persists without rupture, anchoring trader consensus at 93.5% for no U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Routine gray-zone activities continue unabated—such as a Chinese frigate shadowing a suspected U.S. destroyer for 20 hours in the Taiwan Strait on April 20, Japanese warship transits monitored by PLA patrols, and a Chinese jet intercepting a U.S. B-52 over the South China Sea on May 9—but fall short of kinetic conflict, reflecting mutual deterrence and economic interdependence. Taiwan's legislative gridlock delaying defense budgets adds uncertainty, yet no invasion signals or red-line crossings have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though sudden escalations like intensified blockades remain possible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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