Diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit has reinforced channels for managing bilateral frictions, contributing to trader consensus that a direct US-China military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Recent July 2026 vessel clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal prompted joint US-Philippines-Japan maritime drills without drawing American forces into direct confrontation with China. Ongoing South China Sea tensions, combined with mutual economic interests and military deterrence postures, have kept escalation contained. The high implied probability for no clash reflects sustained diplomatic engagement, established crisis communication mechanisms, and historical patterns of avoiding direct superpower conflict despite regional frictions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Taiwan Strait incident, miscalculation during South China Sea operations involving US assets, or abrupt breakdown in bilateral talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit has reinforced channels for managing bilateral frictions, contributing to trader consensus that a direct US-China military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Recent July 2026 vessel clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal prompted joint US-Philippines-Japan maritime drills without drawing American forces into direct confrontation with China. Ongoing South China Sea tensions, combined with mutual economic interests and military deterrence postures, have kept escalation contained. The high implied probability for no clash reflects sustained diplomatic engagement, established crisis communication mechanisms, and historical patterns of avoiding direct superpower conflict despite regional frictions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Taiwan Strait incident, miscalculation during South China Sea operations involving US assets, or abrupt breakdown in bilateral talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$194,565終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit has reinforced channels for managing bilateral frictions, contributing to trader consensus that a direct US-China military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Recent July 2026 vessel clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal prompted joint US-Philippines-Japan maritime drills without drawing American forces into direct confrontation with China. Ongoing South China Sea tensions, combined with mutual economic interests and military deterrence postures, have kept escalation contained. The high implied probability for no clash reflects sustained diplomatic engagement, established crisis communication mechanisms, and historical patterns of avoiding direct superpower conflict despite regional frictions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Taiwan Strait incident, miscalculation during South China Sea operations involving US assets, or abrupt breakdown in bilateral talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$194,565終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic stabilization following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit has reinforced channels for managing bilateral frictions, contributing to trader consensus that a direct US-China military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Recent July 2026 vessel clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal prompted joint US-Philippines-Japan maritime drills without drawing American forces into direct confrontation with China. Ongoing South China Sea tensions, combined with mutual economic interests and military deterrence postures, have kept escalation contained. The high implied probability for no clash reflects sustained diplomatic engagement, established crisis communication mechanisms, and historical patterns of avoiding direct superpower conflict despite regional frictions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Taiwan Strait incident, miscalculation during South China Sea operations involving US assets, or abrupt breakdown in bilateral talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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