China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$10,189 Vol.
$10,189 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
$10,189 Vol.
$10,189 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
音量
$10,189終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
音量
$10,189終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...China’s ballistic missile tests remain infrequent public events, with the most recent confirmed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) firing occurring on July 6, 2026, into the Pacific. Subsequent months have shown a noticeable lull in activity, widely attributed to ongoing purges and leadership changes within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Traders assign low odds to another launch before year-end because Beijing has historically conducted only a handful of acknowledged long-range or SLBM tests over decades, often tied to specific training cycles or capability milestones rather than routine operations. No official announcements or credible reporting point to scheduled tests in the final months of 2026, and regional diplomatic notifications for prior events underscore the deliberate, non-routine nature of such launches. This pattern supports the current market consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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