Diplomatic tensions between Japan and China, rooted in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s prior statements on a potential Taiwan contingency, have reduced prospects for a formal bilateral meeting at the November 18–19 APEC summit in Shenzhen. Japanese officials have sought assurances of standard protocol treatment, including at least a brief handshake during group greetings or the leaders’ program, while Chinese sources indicate a full summit remains unlikely and any encounter would stay limited to customary courtesies. This uncertainty over whether Xi Jinping will extend even minimal physical greeting, combined with the short window for any interaction amid broader bilateral strains, supports the fragmented probabilities across brief handshake intervals and the no-handshake outcome.