Ongoing US-China trade talks have focused on sustaining the partial tariff truce reached in late 2025 rather than forging a comprehensive new agreement before the end of August. Average bilateral tariffs remain elevated following earlier escalations and subsequent reductions, with extensions of existing suspensions through November 2026. Recent Supreme Court rulings on tariff authorities and follow-on Section 301 actions have introduced additional procedural steps that typically require months to resolve. With no scheduled high-level summit or breakthrough announcement imminent in the next few weeks, traders assign an 84% implied probability that no deal meeting the market criteria will be reached by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/08/31
新規
新規
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-China trade talks have focused on sustaining the partial tariff truce reached in late 2025 rather than forging a comprehensive new agreement before the end of August. Average bilateral tariffs remain elevated following earlier escalations and subsequent reductions, with extensions of existing suspensions through November 2026. Recent Supreme Court rulings on tariff authorities and follow-on Section 301 actions have introduced additional procedural steps that typically require months to resolve. With no scheduled high-level summit or breakthrough announcement imminent in the next few weeks, traders assign an 84% implied probability that no deal meeting the market criteria will be reached by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-China trade talks have focused on sustaining the partial tariff truce reached in late 2025 rather than forging a comprehensive new agreement before the end of August. Average bilateral tariffs remain elevated following earlier escalations and subsequent reductions, with extensions of existing suspensions through November 2026. Recent Supreme Court rulings on tariff authorities and follow-on Section 301 actions have introduced additional procedural steps that typically require months to resolve. With no scheduled high-level summit or breakthrough announcement imminent in the next few weeks, traders assign an 84% implied probability that no deal meeting the market criteria will be reached by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-China trade talks have focused on sustaining the partial tariff truce reached in late 2025 rather than forging a comprehensive new agreement before the end of August. Average bilateral tariffs remain elevated following earlier escalations and subsequent reductions, with extensions of existing suspensions through November 2026. Recent Supreme Court rulings on tariff authorities and follow-on Section 301 actions have introduced additional procedural steps that typically require months to resolve. With no scheduled high-level summit or breakthrough announcement imminent in the next few weeks, traders assign an 84% implied probability that no deal meeting the market criteria will be reached by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問