Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 85.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the November 28, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate election, reflecting trader consensus around her status as the Kuomintang (KMT) nominee following a March 2026 primary victory over incumbent Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. The KMT has controlled the county government since 2001, providing structural advantages in voter base and organizational strength that support her positioning ahead of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee Cheng Chao-fang, who sits at 14.5% after her June 2026 selection. Recent August 2026 party meetings have emphasized KMT unity to mitigate risks from lingering primary tensions, though analysts note that an independent bid by Chen could fragment support and narrow the margin. Lower-probability names, including Lin Szu-ming at 0.9% and Chen Chien-hsien at 0.5%, align with limited viability absent major shifts such as candidate withdrawals or late alliances before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日徐欣瑩 86%
鄭朝方 15%
林思銘 <1%
陳見賢 <1%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
徐欣瑩
86%
鄭朝方
15%
林思銘
1%
陳見賢
1%
徐欣瑩 86%
鄭朝方 15%
林思銘 <1%
陳見賢 <1%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
徐欣瑩
$1,539 Vol.
86%
鄭朝方
$655 Vol.
15%
林思銘
$280 Vol.
1%
陳見賢
$280 Vol.
1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 85.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the November 28, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate election, reflecting trader consensus around her status as the Kuomintang (KMT) nominee following a March 2026 primary victory over incumbent Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. The KMT has controlled the county government since 2001, providing structural advantages in voter base and organizational strength that support her positioning ahead of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee Cheng Chao-fang, who sits at 14.5% after her June 2026 selection. Recent August 2026 party meetings have emphasized KMT unity to mitigate risks from lingering primary tensions, though analysts note that an independent bid by Chen could fragment support and narrow the margin. Lower-probability names, including Lin Szu-ming at 0.9% and Chen Chien-hsien at 0.5%, align with limited viability absent major shifts such as candidate withdrawals or late alliances before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
音量
$2,755終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 85.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the November 28, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate election, reflecting trader consensus around her status as the Kuomintang (KMT) nominee following a March 2026 primary victory over incumbent Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. The KMT has controlled the county government since 2001, providing structural advantages in voter base and organizational strength that support her positioning ahead of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee Cheng Chao-fang, who sits at 14.5% after her June 2026 selection. Recent August 2026 party meetings have emphasized KMT unity to mitigate risks from lingering primary tensions, though analysts note that an independent bid by Chen could fragment support and narrow the margin. Lower-probability names, including Lin Szu-ming at 0.9% and Chen Chien-hsien at 0.5%, align with limited viability absent major shifts such as candidate withdrawals or late alliances before election day.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
音量
$2,755終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hsu Hsin-ying holds an 85.5% implied probability as the frontrunner for the November 28, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate election, reflecting trader consensus around her status as the Kuomintang (KMT) nominee following a March 2026 primary victory over incumbent Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. The KMT has controlled the county government since 2001, providing structural advantages in voter base and organizational strength that support her positioning ahead of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee Cheng Chao-fang, who sits at 14.5% after her June 2026 selection. Recent August 2026 party meetings have emphasized KMT unity to mitigate risks from lingering primary tensions, though analysts note that an independent bid by Chen could fragment support and narrow the margin. Lower-probability names, including Lin Szu-ming at 0.9% and Chen Chien-hsien at 0.5%, align with limited viability absent major shifts such as candidate withdrawals or late alliances before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問