Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Lebanon conflict, including Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-related security risks, underpin the U.S. Embassy Beirut's ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026. The mission remains operational with essential staff under a Level 4 travel advisory citing armed conflict, terrorism, and kidnapping threats. Recent diplomatic activity, including U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa's September 2026 visits to southern pilot zones and Washington talks between Lebanese and Israeli envoys, signals continued U.S. engagement aimed at Lebanese army deployment, phased withdrawals, and stability arrangements ahead of potential October negotiations. These efforts, alongside persistent strikes and stalled momentum, shape trader assessments of full embassy evacuation timelines amid active but fragile de-escalation processes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$119,425 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
6%
$119,425 Vol.
12月31日
$25,323 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Lebanon conflict, including Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-related security risks, underpin the U.S. Embassy Beirut's ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026. The mission remains operational with essential staff under a Level 4 travel advisory citing armed conflict, terrorism, and kidnapping threats. Recent diplomatic activity, including U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa's September 2026 visits to southern pilot zones and Washington talks between Lebanese and Israeli envoys, signals continued U.S. engagement aimed at Lebanese army deployment, phased withdrawals, and stability arrangements ahead of potential October negotiations. These efforts, alongside persistent strikes and stalled momentum, shape trader assessments of full embassy evacuation timelines amid active but fragile de-escalation processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$119,425終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Lebanon conflict, including Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-related security risks, underpin the U.S. Embassy Beirut's ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026. The mission remains operational with essential staff under a Level 4 travel advisory citing armed conflict, terrorism, and kidnapping threats. Recent diplomatic activity, including U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa's September 2026 visits to southern pilot zones and Washington talks between Lebanese and Israeli envoys, signals continued U.S. engagement aimed at Lebanese army deployment, phased withdrawals, and stability arrangements ahead of potential October negotiations. These efforts, alongside persistent strikes and stalled momentum, shape trader assessments of full embassy evacuation timelines amid active but fragile de-escalation processes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$119,425終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Lebanon conflict, including Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-related security risks, underpin the U.S. Embassy Beirut's ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026. The mission remains operational with essential staff under a Level 4 travel advisory citing armed conflict, terrorism, and kidnapping threats. Recent diplomatic activity, including U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa's September 2026 visits to southern pilot zones and Washington talks between Lebanese and Israeli envoys, signals continued U.S. engagement aimed at Lebanese army deployment, phased withdrawals, and stability arrangements ahead of potential October negotiations. These efforts, alongside persistent strikes and stalled momentum, shape trader assessments of full embassy evacuation timelines amid active but fragile de-escalation processes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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