Diplomatic efforts between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain stalled amid a fragile ceasefire that began on April 8, 2026, and has since been extended. The most recent major development saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi state on May 16 that deep distrust over U.S. intentions continues to block progress toward a permanent agreement, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and demands to end fighting across fronts such as Lebanon. Israel maintains operations against Iranian proxies while emphasizing the need to dismantle enrichment capabilities and remove existing nuclear material. No formal bilateral Israel-Iran negotiations have occurred, with talks routed through U.S.-mediated channels in Islamabad and secondary diplomacy involving Pakistan and other actors. Upcoming developments hinge on whether the blockade lifts or further proposals address enforcement mechanisms, though the timeline for any resolution remains uncertain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$911,055 Vol.
2026/05/31
May 31
4%
6月30日
14%
$911,055 Vol.
May 31
$261,244 Vol.
4%
6月30日
$335,195 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic efforts between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain stalled amid a fragile ceasefire that began on April 8, 2026, and has since been extended. The most recent major development saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi state on May 16 that deep distrust over U.S. intentions continues to block progress toward a permanent agreement, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and demands to end fighting across fronts such as Lebanon. Israel maintains operations against Iranian proxies while emphasizing the need to dismantle enrichment capabilities and remove existing nuclear material. No formal bilateral Israel-Iran negotiations have occurred, with talks routed through U.S.-mediated channels in Islamabad and secondary diplomacy involving Pakistan and other actors. Upcoming developments hinge on whether the blockade lifts or further proposals address enforcement mechanisms, though the timeline for any resolution remains uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
音量
$911,055終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic efforts between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain stalled amid a fragile ceasefire that began on April 8, 2026, and has since been extended. The most recent major development saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi state on May 16 that deep distrust over U.S. intentions continues to block progress toward a permanent agreement, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and demands to end fighting across fronts such as Lebanon. Israel maintains operations against Iranian proxies while emphasizing the need to dismantle enrichment capabilities and remove existing nuclear material. No formal bilateral Israel-Iran negotiations have occurred, with talks routed through U.S.-mediated channels in Islamabad and secondary diplomacy involving Pakistan and other actors. Upcoming developments hinge on whether the blockade lifts or further proposals address enforcement mechanisms, though the timeline for any resolution remains uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$911,055終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain stalled amid a fragile ceasefire that began on April 8, 2026, and has since been extended. The most recent major development saw Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi state on May 16 that deep distrust over U.S. intentions continues to block progress toward a permanent agreement, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and demands to end fighting across fronts such as Lebanon. Israel maintains operations against Iranian proxies while emphasizing the need to dismantle enrichment capabilities and remove existing nuclear material. No formal bilateral Israel-Iran negotiations have occurred, with talks routed through U.S.-mediated channels in Islamabad and secondary diplomacy involving Pakistan and other actors. Upcoming developments hinge on whether the blockade lifts or further proposals address enforcement mechanisms, though the timeline for any resolution remains uncertain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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