Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$59,649 Vol.
2026/06/26
6月26日
5%
6月27日
4%
6月28日
6%
6月29日
5%
6月30日
5%
7月1日
4%
7月2日
4%
7月3日
3%
7月4日
4%
7月5日
7%
7月6日
5%
7月7日
6%
7月8日
29%
7月9日
7%
$59,649 Vol.
6月26日
$34,150 Vol.
5%
6月27日
$10,436 Vol.
4%
6月28日
$2,757 Vol.
6%
6月29日
$3,704 Vol.
5%
6月30日
$2,991 Vol.
5%
7月1日
$673 Vol.
4%
7月2日
$293 Vol.
4%
7月3日
$285 Vol.
3%
7月4日
$415 Vol.
4%
7月5日
$988 Vol.
7%
7月6日
$324 Vol.
5%
7月7日
$2,601 Vol.
6%
7月8日
$10 Vol.
29%
7月9日
$22 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
音量
$59,649終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
音量
$59,649終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問