European leaders have maintained a consistent defensive posture in the ongoing US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, issuing joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK that condemn Iranian missile and drone attacks while limiting commitments to proportionate actions protecting regional interests and shipping lanes. Recent deployments, including UK naval assets and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Strait of Hormuz, focus on deterrence and navigation security rather than offensive operations against Iranian territory. Diplomatic channels remain active, with continued emphasis on de-escalation and sanctions relief talks, alongside domestic constraints on deeper military involvement. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural barriers. A direct Iranian attack on European military assets or bases could still prompt a shift in calculations within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,370,680 Vol.
$1,370,680 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$1,370,680 Vol.
$1,370,680 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have maintained a consistent defensive posture in the ongoing US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, issuing joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK that condemn Iranian missile and drone attacks while limiting commitments to proportionate actions protecting regional interests and shipping lanes. Recent deployments, including UK naval assets and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Strait of Hormuz, focus on deterrence and navigation security rather than offensive operations against Iranian territory. Diplomatic channels remain active, with continued emphasis on de-escalation and sanctions relief talks, alongside domestic constraints on deeper military involvement. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural barriers. A direct Iranian attack on European military assets or bases could still prompt a shift in calculations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
音量
$1,370,680終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have maintained a consistent defensive posture in the ongoing US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, issuing joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK that condemn Iranian missile and drone attacks while limiting commitments to proportionate actions protecting regional interests and shipping lanes. Recent deployments, including UK naval assets and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Strait of Hormuz, focus on deterrence and navigation security rather than offensive operations against Iranian territory. Diplomatic channels remain active, with continued emphasis on de-escalation and sanctions relief talks, alongside domestic constraints on deeper military involvement. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural barriers. A direct Iranian attack on European military assets or bases could still prompt a shift in calculations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,370,680終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders have maintained a consistent defensive posture in the ongoing US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026, issuing joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK that condemn Iranian missile and drone attacks while limiting commitments to proportionate actions protecting regional interests and shipping lanes. Recent deployments, including UK naval assets and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Strait of Hormuz, focus on deterrence and navigation security rather than offensive operations against Iranian territory. Diplomatic channels remain active, with continued emphasis on de-escalation and sanctions relief talks, alongside domestic constraints on deeper military involvement. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural barriers. A direct Iranian attack on European military assets or bases could still prompt a shift in calculations within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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