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icon for イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？
世界·中東

イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？

icon for イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？
世界·中東

イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？

はい

1% 確率
Polymarket

$215,953 Vol.

はい

1% 確率
Polymarket

$215,953 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$215,953
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% implied probability for an Iranian presidential election by June 30, driven by the absence of any constitutional trigger—such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's death, resignation, or incapacity—under Iran's electoral rules mandating a snap vote within 50 days of a vacancy. Pezeshkian's term extends to 2028, with his recent public appearances, including a May 7 meeting with interim Supreme Leader figures and statements quashing divided leadership narratives, confirming his ongoing role in the post-Khamenei transition council formed after the Supreme Leader's March death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Amid heightened military tensions, including correlated markets pricing U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure at near-certainty, regime survival trumps electoral logistics in the remaining weeks. Only a sudden presidential health crisis or removal could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$215,953
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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よくある質問

「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施しますか？」で1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、1¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に1%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？」は$216Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 1, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？」の現在のリーダーは「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施しますか？」でわずか1%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イランは6月30日までに大統領選挙を実施するか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。