**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30. Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$764,107 Vol.
$764,107 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$764,107 Vol.
$764,107 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30.
Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
音量
$764,107終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30.
Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$764,107終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30. Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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