Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that ties any further IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon, including positions beyond the Litani River, to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah disarmament in designated pilot zones. The security annex explicitly makes withdrawals conditions-based rather than calendar-driven, with Israel retaining freedom of action in its security zone until threats are addressed. As of mid-September 2026, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that the campaign continues and that the Lebanese army must demonstrate greater effectiveness before broader pullbacks can occur, while Israeli defense officials have ruled out time-bound exits. Limited pilot-zone transfers have begun, but Hezbollah has rejected the deal and LAF progress remains under scrutiny amid ongoing Israeli strikes. Ongoing diplomatic rounds and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 represent the main near-term variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,367,757 Vol.
9月30日
1%
3月31日
25%
10月31日
6%
December 31
15%
$1,367,757 Vol.
9月30日
1%
3月31日
25%
10月31日
6%
December 31
15%
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Sep 7, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Israeli and Lebanese officials signed a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that ties any further IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon, including positions beyond the Litani River, to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah disarmament in designated pilot zones. The security annex explicitly makes withdrawals conditions-based rather than calendar-driven, with Israel retaining freedom of action in its security zone until threats are addressed. As of mid-September 2026, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that the campaign continues and that the Lebanese army must demonstrate greater effectiveness before broader pullbacks can occur, while Israeli defense officials have ruled out time-bound exits. Limited pilot-zone transfers have begun, but Hezbollah has rejected the deal and LAF progress remains under scrutiny amid ongoing Israeli strikes. Ongoing diplomatic rounds and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 represent the main near-term variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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