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icon for イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

icon for イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?

$1,367,757 Vol.

2026/09/30
Polymarket

$1,367,757 Vol.

Polymarket

9月30日

$9,960 Vol.

1%

3月31日

$136 Vol.

21%

10月31日

$3,838 Vol.

6%

December 31

$512,605 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces maintain positions in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement that links any broader withdrawal beyond the Litani River to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) assumption of exclusive security control in designated pilot zones. The deal established limited, conditions-based pullbacks from two small areas (one north and one south of the river), rather than a fixed timeline or full redeployment, with Israel retaining a buffer zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, the IDF chief stated the campaign continues and the LAF must demonstrate greater effectiveness before further progress, while Israeli strikes persist in the south. Upcoming U.S.-mediated talks in Rome in October could influence sequencing, though Hezbollah has rejected the framework's disarmament linkage and implementation of even pilot zones has advanced slowly. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the absence of rapid disarmament milestones.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,367,757
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 7, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces maintain positions in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement that links any broader withdrawal beyond the Litani River to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) assumption of exclusive security control in designated pilot zones. The deal established limited, conditions-based pullbacks from two small areas (one north and one south of the river), rather than a fixed timeline or full redeployment, with Israel retaining a buffer zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, the IDF chief stated the campaign continues and the LAF must demonstrate greater effectiveness before further progress, while Israeli strikes persist in the south. Upcoming U.S.-mediated talks in Rome in October could influence sequencing, though Hezbollah has rejected the framework's disarmament linkage and implementation of even pilot zones has advanced slowly. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the absence of rapid disarmament milestones.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,367,757
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 7, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

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よくある質問

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「3月31日」で21%、次いで「December 31」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、21¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に21%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」は$1.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Jun 7, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「3月31日」で21%であり、市場がこの結果に21%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「December 31」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イスラエル軍は… ?までにリタニ川を越えて撤退しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。