Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 9.5% likelihood, reflecting President Trump's May 10 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a US peace initiative amid stalled indirect talks in Oman and Geneva. Recent US demands for Iran to fully abandon uranium enrichment for at least 20 years clash with Tehran's insistence on shorter five-year pauses and retention of civilian nuclear rights, compounded by a missed 60-day Trump deadline that prompted Israeli airstrikes. Trump's public statements framing a ceasefire as on "life support" and prioritizing national security over economic costs underscore diplomatic hardening, with no breakthroughs in the past week despite Oman-mediated rounds, leaving scant time before the deadline amid ongoing regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$554,213 Vol.
$554,213 Vol.
2026/05/31
$554,213 Vol.
$554,213 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 9.5% likelihood, reflecting President Trump's May 10 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a US peace initiative amid stalled indirect talks in Oman and Geneva. Recent US demands for Iran to fully abandon uranium enrichment for at least 20 years clash with Tehran's insistence on shorter five-year pauses and retention of civilian nuclear rights, compounded by a missed 60-day Trump deadline that prompted Israeli airstrikes. Trump's public statements framing a ceasefire as on "life support" and prioritizing national security over economic costs underscore diplomatic hardening, with no breakthroughs in the past week despite Oman-mediated rounds, leaving scant time before the deadline amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
音量
$554,213終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 9.5% likelihood, reflecting President Trump's May 10 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a US peace initiative amid stalled indirect talks in Oman and Geneva. Recent US demands for Iran to fully abandon uranium enrichment for at least 20 years clash with Tehran's insistence on shorter five-year pauses and retention of civilian nuclear rights, compounded by a missed 60-day Trump deadline that prompted Israeli airstrikes. Trump's public statements framing a ceasefire as on "life support" and prioritizing national security over economic costs underscore diplomatic hardening, with no breakthroughs in the past week despite Oman-mediated rounds, leaving scant time before the deadline amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$554,213終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 9.5% likelihood, reflecting President Trump's May 10 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a US peace initiative amid stalled indirect talks in Oman and Geneva. Recent US demands for Iran to fully abandon uranium enrichment for at least 20 years clash with Tehran's insistence on shorter five-year pauses and retention of civilian nuclear rights, compounded by a missed 60-day Trump deadline that prompted Israeli airstrikes. Trump's public statements framing a ceasefire as on "life support" and prioritizing national security over economic costs underscore diplomatic hardening, with no breakthroughs in the past week despite Oman-mediated rounds, leaving scant time before the deadline amid ongoing regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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