Recent U.S. proposals for a preliminary framework agreement—covering a moratorium on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—have advanced indirect talks with Iran through mediators in Oman and Pakistan. Iran is actively reviewing the one-page memorandum, following multiple rounds of negotiations since early 2026 and amid ongoing regional tensions. These developments, combined with U.S. demands for verifiable nuclear limits and Iranian counteroffers on phased de-escalation, have strengthened trader views that a comprehensive deal remains feasible before 2027. Persistent gaps over missile programs, IAEA access, and verification timelines continue to introduce uncertainty, keeping the implied probability for resolution near even odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,328,796 Vol.
$1,328,796 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,328,796 Vol.
$1,328,796 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S. proposals for a preliminary framework agreement—covering a moratorium on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—have advanced indirect talks with Iran through mediators in Oman and Pakistan. Iran is actively reviewing the one-page memorandum, following multiple rounds of negotiations since early 2026 and amid ongoing regional tensions. These developments, combined with U.S. demands for verifiable nuclear limits and Iranian counteroffers on phased de-escalation, have strengthened trader views that a comprehensive deal remains feasible before 2027. Persistent gaps over missile programs, IAEA access, and verification timelines continue to introduce uncertainty, keeping the implied probability for resolution near even odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
音量
$1,328,796終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S. proposals for a preliminary framework agreement—covering a moratorium on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—have advanced indirect talks with Iran through mediators in Oman and Pakistan. Iran is actively reviewing the one-page memorandum, following multiple rounds of negotiations since early 2026 and amid ongoing regional tensions. These developments, combined with U.S. demands for verifiable nuclear limits and Iranian counteroffers on phased de-escalation, have strengthened trader views that a comprehensive deal remains feasible before 2027. Persistent gaps over missile programs, IAEA access, and verification timelines continue to introduce uncertainty, keeping the implied probability for resolution near even odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$1,328,796終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. proposals for a preliminary framework agreement—covering a moratorium on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—have advanced indirect talks with Iran through mediators in Oman and Pakistan. Iran is actively reviewing the one-page memorandum, following multiple rounds of negotiations since early 2026 and amid ongoing regional tensions. These developments, combined with U.S. demands for verifiable nuclear limits and Iranian counteroffers on phased de-escalation, have strengthened trader views that a comprehensive deal remains feasible before 2027. Persistent gaps over missile programs, IAEA access, and verification timelines continue to introduce uncertainty, keeping the implied probability for resolution near even odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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