Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s position remains closely balanced in trader assessments for completing his term through 2026, driven by institutional support from President Joseph Aoun and scheduled parliamentary elections that could reinforce continuity. Recent diplomatic engagements, including direct talks with Israel and meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, have advanced ceasefire stabilization and Phase Two disarmament efforts beyond the Litani River, while international backing for reforms and a potential successor force to UNIFIL adds momentum. Counterbalancing these are persistent sectarian power-sharing constraints, Hezbollah’s entrenched influence, and unresolved economic pressures that keep exit risks competitive. A collapse in the fragile ceasefire, parliamentary no-confidence vote, or stalled reform implementation could shift odds toward departure, whereas sustained state authority gains or successful border security negotiations might extend stability through year-end.